234 Lakeside Trl · Ridge, NY 11961

$329,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1948 0.36 ac lot Est $419k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short sale, Subject to bank approval. Home is occupied. Do not trespass or disturb occupant. House needs complete reno.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 1948
• Listed 36 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($71k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $329k).
• Recommended offer: $319k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.9% vs local median 3.0% in Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#932 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 719 students, 44% FRL); Longwood Junior High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,388 students, 48% FRL); Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $92k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $255k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $319,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.16%
• DSCR: 4.43
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $418,968
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 Lakeside Trl	0.09mi	2/1.0	864 (+9%)	13mo	$428,000	$495	67
103 Wauwepex Trl	0.71mi	2/1.5	792 (0%)	4mo	$419,103	$529	63
128 Lakeside Trl	0.54mi	2/1.0	876 (+11%)	6mo	$465,000	$531	50
12 Corchaug Trl	0.61mi	2/1.0	816 (+3%)	20mo	$415,000	$509	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $324,337
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.36×
• Total profit: $769,751
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11961

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$756 /mo · $9,076/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,271
• Net cashflow: $5,924

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,315

Max offer price $329,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,110	-5% $6,017	+0% $5,924	+5% $5,830	+10% $5,737
Rent	-10% $5,069	-5% $5,496	+0% $5,924	+5% $6,351	+10% $6,778
Rate	-1.0pp $6,089	-0.5pp $6,007	base $5,924	+0.5pp $5,838	+1.0pp $5,752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
187 Lakeside Trl Unit 1429738P Ridge, NY	3.0	2.5	861	$10,813	$12.56	45d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-11-13
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-08
   listed $329,000 Active
3. 2004-09-23
   soldstatus $255,000
4. 1998-11-12
   soldstatus $102,000
5. 1990-07-31
   soldstatus $109,000
6. 1989-10-24
   soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,076 · $756/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,076 · $756/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $129,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$9,076
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,380
• − Management: −$10,380
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable income: $70,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,866
• After-tax cash flow: $54,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ridge

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #932
• US rank: #18125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridge, NY
• City population: 12,436
• Population (ZIP): 12,436

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.86%
• Current HPI: 383.4444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+199.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 1990-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 1989-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,076 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.