93 Saint Marys Dr · Jamesport, NY 11947

$849,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,087 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1968 0.35 ac lot $407/sqft · 21% below area Est $1078k · 21% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Right where you want to be! Enjoy living within a short distance to the Jamesport sugar sand beach! Boat ramp & tennis courts. Just minutes away. King size Colonial fit for a queen! 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths, hardwood floors. Spacious family room with potential for a first-floor en suite primary bedroom, living room, Eat in Kitchen with center island and dining area, and upstairs balcony. Full basement and attached 2 car garage. New heating system 2021.Wine country calling! Preserved farmland with Vineyard views and room for a pool! Come and enjoy bay breezes and bird song in your own backyard. Close to Tanger Mall, wineries and breweries. Experience the beautiful North Fork! Open House to be schedule call for details!

Key facts

• Upstairs balcony
• Eat in kitchen
• Tennis courts

Tags

• JAMESPORT SUGAR SAND BEACH
• BOAT RAMP
• TENNIS COURTS
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• UPSTAIRS BALCONY
• FULL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $849k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $743k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $743k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,185 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($773k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $742,746 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,078,204
• List price: $849,000
• Delta: -21.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Vista Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,256 (+8%)	10mo	$677,740	$300	54
957 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (+5%)	1mo	$1,595,000	$725	53
56 Dougs Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-14%)	4mo	$910,000	$506	49
44 Legend Ln	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,922 (-8%)	0mo	$1,095,000	$570	49
1487 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.70mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,346 (+12%)	16mo	$2,950,000	$1,257	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $116,530
• Equity at exit: $381,747

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $394,918
• Equity at exit: $588,318

Cash invested: $237,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11947

• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,427 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax from tax record: −$837 /mo · $10,050/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,560
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,144

Max offer price $849,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,250
• Closing costs: $25,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1727 Main Rd Unit 1538864P Laurel, NY	3.0	2.5	1937	$7,548	$3.90	13d	1	0.35mi
15 Downs Blvd Jamesport, NY	5.0	3.0	2700	$6,900	$2.56	43d	1	0.42mi
11 Beach Rd Riverhead, NY	5.0	3.0	2700	$6,900	$2.56	43d	1	0.43mi
144 Manor Ln Jamesport, NY	4.0	2.5	2100	$9,500	$4.52	3d	1	0.71mi
33 Beach Rd Laurel, NY	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,500	$2.80	43d	1	0.78mi
7 Eileen Cir Jamesport, NY	3.0	2.0	1572	$10,000	$6.36	19d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Right where you want to be! Enjoy living within a short distance to the Jamesport sugar sand beach! Boat ramp & tennis courts. Just minutes away. King size Colonial fit for a queen! 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths, hardwood floors. Spacious family room with potential for a first-floor en suite primary bedroom, living room, Eat in Kitchen with center island and dining area, and upstairs balcony. Full basement and attached 2 car garage. New heating system 2021.Wine country calling! Preserved farmland with Vineyard views and room for a pool! Come and enjoy bay breezes and bird song in your own backyard. Close to Tanger Mall, wineries and breweries. Experience the beautiful North Fork! Open House to be schedule call for details!

2. 2026-04-21
   price $849,000 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Right where you want to be! Enjoy living within a short distance to the Jamesport sugar sand beach! Boat ramp & tennis courts. Just minutes away. King size Colonial fit for a queen! 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths, hardwood floors. Spacious family room with potential for a first-floor en suite primary bedroom, living room, Eat in Kitchen with center island and dining area, and upstairs balcony. Full basement and attached 2 car garage. New heating system 2021.Wine country calling! Preserved farmland with Vineyard views and room for a pool! Come and enjoy bay breezes and bird song in your own backyard. Close to Tanger Mall, wineries and breweries. Experience the beautiful North Fork! Open House to be schedule call for details!

3. 2026-03-14
   price $899,000 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Right where you want to be! Enjoy living within a short distance to the Jamesport sugar sand beach! Boat ramp & tennis courts. Just minutes away. King size Colonial fit for a queen! 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths, hardwood floors. Spacious family room with potential for a first-floor en suite primary bedroom, living room, Eat in Kitchen with center island and dining area, and upstairs balcony. Full basement and attached 2 car garage. New heating system 2021.Wine country calling! Preserved farmland with Vineyard views and room for a pool! Come and enjoy bay breezes and bird song in your own backyard. Close to Tanger Mall, wineries and breweries. Experience the beautiful North Fork! Open House to be schedule call for details!

4. 2026-01-30
   listed $949,000 Active 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Right where you want to be! Enjoy living within a short distance to the Jamesport sugar sand beach! Boat ramp & tennis courts. Just minutes away. King size Colonial fit for a queen! 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths, hardwood floors. Spacious family room with potential for a first-floor en suite primary bedroom, living room, Eat in Kitchen with center island and dining area, and upstairs balcony. Full basement and attached 2 car garage. New heating system 2021.Wine country calling! Preserved farmland with Vineyard views and room for a pool! Come and enjoy bay breezes and bird song in your own backyard. Close to Tanger Mall, wineries and breweries. Experience the beautiful North Fork! Open House to be schedule call for details!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,050 · $837/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,199 · $1,017/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,149/yr (+$179/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,557
• − Property taxes: −$10,050
• − Insurance: −$4,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,130
• − Management: −$7,130
• − Depreciation: −$24,698
• Taxable loss: −$11,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,804
• After-tax cash flow: $5,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jamesport

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1185
• US rank: #26497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamesport, NY
• City population: 716
• Population (ZIP): 248

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $849,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $949,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,050 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.