48 4 Branch Cir · Maple Falls, WA 98244

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 702 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot $178/sqft · 60% above area $180/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a large, private pie-shaped lot backing to peaceful greenbelt, this beautifully maintained recreational retreat offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and outdoor living. The well-cared-for park model features a spacious add-a-room with attractive wainscoting and a cove ceiling, creating additional living and sleeping space for guests. Inside, you'll find home-like conveniences including full-size stainless steel appliances, a generous dining area, and a full bathroom with a tub/shower combination and comfort-height toilet. Outdoor living is where this property truly shines. Relax on the partially enclosed deck complete with a cozy wood stove, unwind in the freshly up

Key facts

• Backing to greenbelt
• Spacious add-a-room
• Fire pit

Tags

• PRIVATE PIE-SHAPED LOT
• BACKING TO GREENBELT
• SPACIOUS ADD-A-ROOM
• PARTIALLY ENCLOSED DECK
• FRESHLY UPDATED GAZEBO
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#544 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mount Baker School District (rural): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #165 of 291 in WA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.54%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,143
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 66.36%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,183
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $33,334
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98244

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,321

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on marketlisting id $125,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $130,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-02-12
   listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$645
• After-tax cash flow: $3,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained park model is in good condition with a good curb appeal. It has a good kitchen and bathroom, and the exterior siding could benefit from a fresh coat of paint. Upgrading the lighting and replacing the outdoor furniture would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Fresh furniture improves aesthetics and usability
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Fresh furniture improves aesthetics and usability ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Baker School District
• NCES district ID: 5305310
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,695
• Composite: 42.37/100
• National rank: #6931
• State rank: #165 of 291 in WA

Livability — Maple Falls

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #22984

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maple Falls, WA
• Population (ZIP): 3,080

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Native American 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.13%
• Current HPI: 420.4673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $130,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid