24422 Lakecrest Village Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$265,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $292k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS PROPERTY DID NOT FLOOD. lovely 2 story home located in the very desirable Lakecrest Village subdivision. this 4bed 2 1/2 bath home is waiting for you. you won't be disappointed. Pictures coming soon.

Key facts

• Den area opens up
• Unique tree view
• Built 2006

Tags

• DEN AREA OPENS UP
• UNIQUE TREE VIEW
• OPEN AREA BEHIND HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-532/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2728 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,142 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24526 Forest Canopy Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,929 (+6%)	6mo	$309,000	$160	62
2322 Foundary Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,936 (+6%)	1mo	$310,000	$160	59
24418 Lakecrest Bend Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,953 (+7%)	3mo	$305,000	$156	56
24223 Arrow Star Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+2%)	6mo	$275,000	$148	55
23806 Welch House Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+2%)	4mo	$299,000	$161	53
24634 Lakecrest Creek Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (-5%)	3mo	$285,000	$165	53
24030 Whitefield Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (+9%)	1mo	$275,000	$139	52
1811 Salt Valley Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,050 (+12%)	2mo	$299,500	$146	48
2542 Pines Pointe Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+13%)	6mo	$315,000	$153	48
2002 Foundary Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (+8%)	6mo	$280,000	$142	45
24919 Lakecrest Manor Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,598 (-12%)	2mo	$259,000	$162	36
2723 Saw Palmetto Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,089 (+14%)	5mo	$375,000	$180	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-52,797
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-76,760
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2728
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$473 /mo · $5,676/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,498

Max offer price $257,165

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $31	+0% $-44	+5% $-119	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-141	+0% $-44	+5% $52	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $23	base $-44	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2031 Wigmaker Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	6d	1	0.46mi
24414 Leachwood Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,195	$1.29	20d	1	0.47mi
2150 Katy Fort Bend Rd Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,848	$1.45	0d	1	0.53mi
2150 Katy Fort Bend Rd Unit 2183 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,821	$1.43	45d	1	0.53mi
3031 Bugatti Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,700	$0.81	25d	1	0.78mi
24720 Morton Ranch Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$2,394	$2.23	0d	51	0.88mi
1700 Katy Fort Bend Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,415	$2.21	3d	33	0.91mi
24002 Colonial Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$2,262	$2.11	3d	32	1.05mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 23256 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,283	$1.63	45d	1	1.09mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 3187 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,232	$1.59	0d	1	1.09mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,272	$1.62	11d	1	1.09mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,283	$1.63	0d	1	1.09mi
24907 Bastiani Canvas Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2018	$2,200	$1.09	45d	1	1.09mi
1508 Colonial Gorge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,650	$1.39	18d	1	1.11mi
3030 Galileo Way Katy, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1285	$2,375	$1.85	11d	10	1.23mi
1330 W Park Green Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$2,222	$2.10	45d	16	1.25mi
1330 W Park Green Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$2,297	$2.17	0d	15	1.25mi
1330 Park West Green Dr Unit 1363 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,212	$1.52	16d	1	1.26mi
23050 Morton Ranch Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,589	$2.33	0d	31	1.32mi
1724 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.5	1536	$3,340	$2.17	0d	86	1.39mi
1646 Chilton Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,000	$1.39	5d	1	1.41mi
1616 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1283	$2,940	$2.29	0d	49	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 390-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $265,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,676 · $473/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,676 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$5,676
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,344
• − Management: −$2,344
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,187
• After-tax cash flow: $654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+65.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $265,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-10-18 Price Changed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2019-09-17 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-05-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-05-29 Listed $160,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,676 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.