515 Twin Lakes Cir · Lakeland, FL 33815

$265,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land public records · 268 Days on market

Built 2024 7,649 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready for your new home. Remove the existing structure and create your own. NO HOA or CDD. This lot is centrally located just off US92 and East of Polk County Parkway in Lakeland. Electric and water are public and currently turned on. A pond borders the South side of the lot and at one point had a dock to relax on.

Key facts

• Part of the lake
• Own land
• New central a/c unit

Tags

• WIND ZONE 3 STANDARD
• OWN LAND
• QUIET TREE LINED STREET
• PART OF THE LAKE
• NEW CENTRAL A/C UNIT
• NEW POWER POLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Community street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Boat parking; Driveway parking; Off-street parking; RV access/parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; New construction; Faces west; Central living area accessibility
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built by Champion Homes
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Pond and pond view with water access; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Open floor plan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Inside utility / family room area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,977/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $265k implies a 489% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,665 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $133,613
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $421,876
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33815

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $225,959

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-178	+0% $-270	+5% $-361	+10% $-453
Rent	-10% $-426	-5% $-348	+0% $-270	+5% $-192	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-136	-0.5pp $-202	base $-270	+0.5pp $-338	+1.0pp $-408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2117 Ivey Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,980	$1.71	24d	1	0.92mi
3327 Old Tampa Hwy Unit N/A Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,290	$1.63	15d	1	1.03mi
1618 Wayman St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	994	$1,750	$1.76	24d	1	1.15mi
515 Oregon Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	4d	1	1.18mi
806 N Swindell Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$1,450	$1.46	24d	1	1.29mi
1335 W Walnut St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1626	$1,800	$1.11	4d	1	1.37mi
815 N Davis Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,450	$1.51	24d	1	1.40mi
2127 Blue Highlands Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,275	$1.22	24d	1	1.44mi
3552 Doreen Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,730	$1.57	24d	1	1.48mi
1246 Dorothy St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,300	$1.55	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 250 DOM
14. 2025-11-20
    price $265,000
15. 2025-10-21
    price $270,000
16. 2025-10-08
    price $275,000
17. 2025-10-02
    price $280,000
18. 2025-09-28
    price $285,000
19. 2025-09-23
    listed $295,000 Active
20. 2024-01-19
    soldstatus $45,000
21. 2024-01-16
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Ready for your new home. Remove the existing structure and create your own. NO HOA or CDD. This lot is centrally located just off US92 and East of Polk County Parkway in Lakeland. Electric and water are public and currently turned on. A pond borders the South side of the lot and at one point had a dock to relax on.

22. 2023-12-21
    status Pending 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Ready for your new home. Remove the existing structure and create your own. NO HOA or CDD. This lot is centrally located just off US92 and East of Polk County Parkway in Lakeland. Electric and water are public and currently turned on. A pond borders the South side of the lot and at one point had a dock to relax on.

23. 2023-12-21
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Ready for your new home. Remove the existing structure and create your own. NO HOA or CDD. This lot is centrally located just off US92 and East of Polk County Parkway in Lakeland. Electric and water are public and currently turned on. A pond borders the South side of the lot and at one point had a dock to relax on.

24. 2023-12-21
    historical

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Ready for your new home. Remove the existing structure and create your own. NO HOA or CDD. This lot is centrally located just off US92 and East of Polk County Parkway in Lakeland. Electric and water are public and currently turned on. A pond borders the South side of the lot and at one point had a dock to relax on.

25. 2023-12-18
    listed $45,000 Active 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Ready for your new home. Remove the existing structure and create your own. NO HOA or CDD. This lot is centrally located just off US92 and East of Polk County Parkway in Lakeland. Electric and water are public and currently turned on. A pond borders the South side of the lot and at one point had a dock to relax on.

26. 2023-12-18
    listed $45,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Ready for your new home. Remove the existing structure and create your own. NO HOA or CDD. This lot is centrally located just off US92 and East of Polk County Parkway in Lakeland. Electric and water are public and currently turned on. A pond borders the South side of the lot and at one point had a dock to relax on.

27. 1994-04-01
    soldstatus $38,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$7,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,903
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,975
• Household income: $37,487
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.45%
• Current HPI: 424.0956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+588.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-16 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-18 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-18 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $189 · -86.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.