144 Green Shadow Rd · Wildwood Lake, TN 37323

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1975 0.41 ac lot $177/sqft · 5% below area Est $243k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover 144 Green Shadow Rd SE, a residence recently updated with a new hvac system for year-round comfort. The exterior includes a deck providing space for enjoyment, extending to a fully fenced in backyard for defined outdoor use. This home perfectly blends updates and outdoor comfort.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.6% in Wildwood Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#189 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Bradley County (other): math 35% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #33 of 139 in TN (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 768 units permitted in Bradley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bradley County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,653 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.92%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,099
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -5.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 Eastview Ln SE	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+8%)	3mo	$269,900	$192	63
492 Green Shadow Rd SE	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,188 (-8%)	1mo	$195,000	$164	54
489 Green Shadow Rd SE	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,272 (-2%)	20mo	$150,000	$118	52
440 SE Samples Chapel Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,112 (-14%)	24mo	$250,000	$225	29
532 Millbrook Cir SE	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,116 (-14%)	20mo	$275,000	$246	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-23,986
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,106
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37323

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $589/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,710

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
185 Westview Ln SE Cleveland, TN	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	43d	1	0.18mi
5312 Spring Place Rd SE Cleveland, TN	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,200	$0.98	43d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $230,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $230,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $236,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $236,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $236,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $236,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $236,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $236,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $239,000 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    Discover 144 Green Shadow Rd SE, a residence recently updated with a new hvac system for year-round comfort. The exterior includes a deck providing space for enjoyment, extending to a fully fenced in backyard for defined outdoor use. This home perfectly blends updates and outdoor comfort.

18. 2026-04-30
    price $242,000 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    Discover 144 Green Shadow Rd SE, a residence recently updated with a new hvac system for year-round comfort. The exterior includes a deck providing space for enjoyment, extending to a fully fenced in backyard for defined outdoor use. This home perfectly blends updates and outdoor comfort.

19. 2026-04-17
    listed $245,000 Active 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    Discover 144 Green Shadow Rd SE, a residence recently updated with a new hvac system for year-round comfort. The exterior includes a deck providing space for enjoyment, extending to a fully fenced in backyard for defined outdoor use. This home perfectly blends updates and outdoor comfort.

20. 2026-03-05
    soldstatus $232,600
21. 2019-04-11
    soldstatus $129,900
22. 2019-04-09
    soldstatus $129,900 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Looking for the perfect home for your family that doesn't break the budget? This home features 3 bedrooms and a bonus room currently being used as a master bedroom. Lots of recent upgrades including new carpet and fresh exterior paint. Large fenced in back yard with 2 storage buildings and a well-built tree house for the kids. Come see it today!

23. 2019-04-09
    soldstatus $129,900

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Looking for the perfect home for your family that doesn't break the budget? This home features 3 bedrooms and a bonus room currently being used as a master bedroom. Lots of recent upgrades including new carpet and fresh exterior paint. Large fenced in back yard with 2 storage buildings and a well-built tree house for the kids. Come see it today!

24. 2019-01-11
    listed $129,900 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Looking for the perfect home for your family that doesn't break the budget? This home features 3 bedrooms and a bonus room currently being used as a master bedroom. Lots of recent upgrades including new carpet and fresh exterior paint. Large fenced in back yard with 2 storage buildings and a well-built tree house for the kids. Come see it today!

25. 2018-12-19
    listed $129,900
26. 2000-08-21
    soldstatus $53,000
27. 1995-07-07
    soldstatus $54,000
28. 1989-04-24
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $589 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,633 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,044/yr (+$87/mo · 177.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$589
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$1,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$334
• After-tax cash flow: $2,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bradley County
• NCES district ID: 4700330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,807
• Composite: 29.54/100
• National rank: #6494
• State rank: #33 of 139 in TN

Livability — Wildwood Lake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #189
• US rank: #15156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bradley County · 99,337 people
• Metro: Cleveland, TN
• Population (ZIP): 31,948
• Household income: $68,768
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 371.0

Population outlook (Bradley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,901 people
• By 2030: 120,137 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 130,125 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 139,257 · +21.2%
• By 2075: 161,664 · +40.7%
• By 2100: 179,767 · +56.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bradley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.0% · R 78.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -49.7pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+55.3 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+53.9 2008: R+49.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.38%
• Current HPI: 287.3643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+545.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $239,000 GCAR
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $242,000 GCAR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $245,000 GCAR
• 2026-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $232,600 Public Records
• 2019-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2019-04-09 Sold (MLS) $129,900 RCAOR
• 2019-04-09 Sold (MLS) $129,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-11 Listed $129,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-19 Listed $129,900 RCAOR
• 2000-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1995-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 1989-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $589 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.