Plan 1637 Plan · Haines City, FL 33844

$256,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily · 438 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 438 days

Tags

• KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $251,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Plan 1637)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Plan 1637)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($489/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 438 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $225,711 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 438 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,105
• Equity at exit: $38,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-50,554
• Equity at exit: $22,177

Cash invested: $71,817 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,345
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$321 /mo · $3,847/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,244

Max offer price $256,490

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $129	+0% $41	+5% $-48	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-50	+0% $41	+5% $131	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $106	base $41	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,122
• Closing costs: $7,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1115 Mariner Cay Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	25d	1	0.49mi
1140 Mariner Cay Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,200	$1.95	25d	1	0.52mi
106 Reineke Rd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,495	$1.11	5d	1	0.62mi
2393 Paulette Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,875	$1.21	5d	1	0.72mi
4209 Deleon St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1863	$2,450	$1.32	16d	1	0.77mi
2301 Paulette Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,150	$1.38	21d	1	0.83mi
504 N 7th St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,870	$1.43	4d	1	0.83mi
3593 Yarian Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	12d	1	0.85mi
3593 Yarian Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	25d	1	0.85mi
3521 Yarian Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,800	$1.06	13d	1	0.87mi
3707 Eisel Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,065	$1.47	16d	1	0.89mi
3815 Whitney Way Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,150	$1.22	16d	1	0.91mi
4014 Alissa Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1598	$2,250	$1.41	25d	1	0.91mi
2628 Hemingway Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1637	$2,200	$1.34	16d	1	0.94mi
4629 Bernard Blvd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$2,300	$1.09	25d	1	0.96mi
2487 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,000	$1.23	25d	1	0.96mi
2474 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	0.96mi
2492 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	16d	1	0.99mi
1016 Avenue A Unit A Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1282	$1,875	$1.46	16d	1	0.99mi
5268 Maddie Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,600	$1.39	23d	1	1.03mi
3108 Cassidy Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1823	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	1.03mi
5280 Maddie Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2024	$2,300	$1.14	21d	1	1.06mi
4373 Deleon St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,250	$1.21	25d	1	1.06mi
2984 Kokomo Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1728	$3,900	$2.26	25d	1	1.08mi
1229 Forest Gate Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,895	$1.20	16d	1	1.08mi
2972 Kokomo Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,900	$1.68	25d	1	1.09mi
1241 Forest Gate Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,100	$1.22	25d	1	1.09mi
546 Pineloch Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1957	$2,295	$1.17	5d	1	1.11mi
401 W Florida Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,649	$1.18	15d	2	1.12mi
3087 Barbados Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1546	$2,500	$1.62	16d	1	1.12mi
105 Kenny Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1802	$2,600	$1.44	5d	1	1.14mi
5309 Maddie Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	1.16mi
3053 Cassidy Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1988	$2,500	$1.26	25d	1	1.16mi
963 E Main St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1545	$1,700	$1.10	16d	1	1.16mi
2896 Kokomo Loop Unit 1259817P Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1119	$6,692	$5.98	21d	1	1.17mi
1125 Avenue L Unit L Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,300	$1.54	25d	1	1.18mi
849 Sheen Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1769	$1,850	$1.05	25d	1	1.33mi
566 Pawnee Ct Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,995	$1.33	25d	1	1.37mi
1109 Ronlin St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1874	$1,981	$1.06	25d	1	1.41mi
945 Kenbar Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1527	$2,051	$1.34	15d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $256,490 Active 438 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,490 Active 435 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,490 Active 434 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,490 Active 433 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $256,490 Active 432 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $256,490 Active 430 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $256,490 Active 427 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $256,490 Active 426 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $256,490 Active 425 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $256,490 Active 424 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $256,490 Active 421 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $256,490 Active 419 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $256,490 Active 418 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $256,490 Active 417 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,367
• − Property taxes: −$3,847
• − Insurance: −$1,282
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − Depreciation: −$7,462
• Taxable loss: −$3,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$917
• After-tax cash flow: $1,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B