1033 Birmingham Ave · Manchester, NJ 08757

$2,700

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1977 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pictures coming soon!! Welcome home to this charming ranch located on an oversized 100x100 lot in the most desirable Pine Lake Park! This home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a spacious Living-Dining Room and Kitchen. Hardwood Flooring throughout the home! In-ground Pool with a Brand New Pool Liner. New Electric Water Heater in the home. This home is a fantastic opportunity! Schedule your showings today!

Key facts

• Open layout
• Pool
• 9,583 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR RETREAT
• POOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer and septic tank
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas stove / gas cooking
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (total 1.5 bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Multiple cooling units
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Light fixtures included; Basement (other); Wood flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $2,700 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$435,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $3k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $3k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,204/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $81 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $756 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $512k (99%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,700

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 118.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 1122.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 3987.67%
• DSCR: 178.43
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $435,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1033 Birmingham Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,250 (0%)	1mo	$500,000	$400	98
1212 Pemberton St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+4%)	4mo	$490,000	$376	73
462 Champlain St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+4%)	1mo	$410,000	$315	68
301 Middlesex St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,272 (+2%)	1mo	$440,000	$346	66
609 Commonwealth Blvd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,323 (+6%)	4mo	$400,000	$302	64
501 Bismarck St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+4%)	4mo	$415,000	$319	62
801 Broadway Blvd	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,356 (+8%)	0mo	$470,000	$347	59
1541 Commonwealth Blvd	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,352 (+8%)	2mo	$415,000	$307	58
1308 12th Ave	0.30mi	3/3.0	1,415 (+13%)	1mo	$599,999	$424	55
816 Third Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+10%)	0mo	$480,000	$348	48
1209 2nd Ave	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,399 (+12%)	3mo	$505,000	$361	41
1428 Fifth Ave	0.65mi	3/3.0	1,415 (+13%)	1mo	$610,000	$431	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 212.13×
• Total profit: $159,616
• Equity at exit: $403

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 457.64×
• Total profit: $345,220
• Equity at exit: $233

Cash invested: $756 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,204 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3 /mo · $40/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $2,512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $24

Max offer price $2,700

Occupancy floor 17%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $675
• Closing costs: $81
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1508	$3,100	$2.06	3d	1	0.43mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	44d	1	0.47mi
1008 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1656	$3,400	$2.05	1d	1	0.58mi
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	44d	1	0.58mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	44d	1	0.60mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	1d	1	0.84mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	22d	1	0.97mi
1732 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1248	$3,500	$2.80	1d	1	0.97mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	1d	3	1.17mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $2,700 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-23
   price $505,000
4. 2026-03-04
   listed $515,000 Active
5. 2025-05-29
   soldstatus $450,000
6. 2025-05-21
   soldstatus $450,000 Closed 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Pictures coming soon!! Welcome home to this charming ranch located on an oversized 100x100 lot in the most desirable Pine Lake Park! This home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a spacious Living-Dining Room and Kitchen. Hardwood Flooring throughout the home! In-ground Pool with a Brand New Pool Liner. New Electric Water Heater in the home. This home is a fantastic opportunity! Schedule your showings today!

7. 2025-03-26
   status Pending 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Pictures coming soon!! Welcome home to this charming ranch located on an oversized 100x100 lot in the most desirable Pine Lake Park! This home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a spacious Living-Dining Room and Kitchen. Hardwood Flooring throughout the home! In-ground Pool with a Brand New Pool Liner. New Electric Water Heater in the home. This home is a fantastic opportunity! Schedule your showings today!

8. 2025-03-10
   listed $399,000 Active 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Pictures coming soon!! Welcome home to this charming ranch located on an oversized 100x100 lot in the most desirable Pine Lake Park! This home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a spacious Living-Dining Room and Kitchen. Hardwood Flooring throughout the home! In-ground Pool with a Brand New Pool Liner. New Electric Water Heater in the home. This home is a fantastic opportunity! Schedule your showings today!

9. 1977-11-23
   soldstatus $28,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$151
• − Property taxes: −$40
• − Insurance: −$14
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,076
• − Management: −$3,076
• − Depreciation: −$79
• Taxable income: $32,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,682
• After-tax cash flow: $22,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Lake Park, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1671.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $505,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $515,000 MOMLS
• 2025-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-21 Sold (MLS) $450,000 MOMLS
• 2025-03-26 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-03-10 Listed $399,000 MOMLS
• 1977-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,124 · +25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.