12832 Mountain Rd · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1985 7,701 sqft lot Est $248k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

$30,000 PRICE REDUCTION! Discover the perfect blend of comfort, modern updates, and serene living in this charming one-story 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home at 12832 Mountain Rd, New Port Richey, FL 34654, nestled in the peaceful Moon Lake Estates area. Step inside to find beautiful wood-look laminate flooring flowing throughout the entire home, creating a warm and cohesive feel. The updated kitchen shines with sleek white shaker cabinets, durable granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances—ideal for everyday meals or entertaining. An open living room and dining room floor plan offers seamless flow and plenty of natural light, while both fully updated bathrooms provide contempora

Key facts

• Open living room
• Updated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• WOOD LOOK LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North facing; Residential zoning (R1)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on less than 1/4 acre lot (approximately 0.18 acres)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Elementary School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 642 students, 68% FRL); River Ridge High School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,802 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,120 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,136
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12903 Tinley Rd	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,206 (+3%)	16mo	$270,000	$224	74
12250 Lacey Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,137 (-3%)	12mo	$145,000	$128	51
12829 Valimar Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,346 (+14%)	21mo	$283,505	$211	48
9255 Estelle St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+10%)	22mo	$235,000	$181	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-49,382
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-73,375
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,506/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $203,948

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12741 Poppy St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	22d	1	0.16mi
9251 Adler St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1006	$1,450	$1.44	24d	1	1.17mi
9253 Beaufort Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	24d	1	1.27mi
13015 Midvale Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	5d	1	1.43mi
11691 Buchner Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,085	$2.10	2d	66	1.45mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $225,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    price $235,000
15. 2026-04-08
    price $245,000
16. 2026-02-25
    listed $255,000 Active
17. 2024-12-31
    historical
18. 2024-05-09
    listed $273,000 Active
19. 2024-02-05
    historical
20. 2024-01-15
    price $114,990
21. 2023-12-19
    listed $124,950 Active
22. 2022-12-09
    soldstatus $250,000
23. 2022-12-05
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed
24. 2022-11-10
    status Pending
25. 2022-10-31
    price $249,900
26. 2022-10-15
    price $259,900
27. 2022-10-15
    price $269,900
28. 2022-09-21
    price $279,900
29. 2022-09-13
    status Active
30. 2022-09-10
    status Active
31. 2022-09-08
    price $284,900
32. 2022-08-15
    price $289,890
33. 2022-07-09
    price $289,900
34. 2022-06-27
    listed $294,900 Active
35. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus $180,000
36. 2011-11-01
    historical
37. 2011-08-11
    listed $26,900
38. 2006-12-31
    historical
39. 2006-09-28
    listed $99,999
40. 1994-03-01
    soldstatus $36,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,506 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,506 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,506
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,321
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,277
• After-tax cash flow: $-153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moon Lake, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+536.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-09 Listed $273,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-15 Price Changed $114,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-19 Listed $124,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-05 Sold (MLS) $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-31 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-15 Price Changed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-15 Price Changed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-21 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-08 Price Changed $284,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-15 Price Changed $289,890 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-09 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-27 Listed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-11 Listed $26,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-28 Listed $99,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,506 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.