5017 N 38th St · Milwaukee, WI 53209

$169,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,373 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1919 3,484 sqft lot $124/sqft · 24% above area Est $137k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 bedroom single family home is the perfect investment. Currently rented for $1,100 per month, this property is a fantastic investment opportunity. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Oak leaf trail
• 3,484 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• 2 CAR DETACHED GARAGE
• EASY ACCESS TO LINCOLN PARK
• HAVENWOODS STATE FOREST
• OAK LEAF TRAIL
• NEARBY SHOPPING AND DINING
• WELL-CONNECTED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Municipal water; Municipal sewer
• Home design: 1.5-story single-family home; Lot under 1/2 acre (approximately 0.08 acre); Zoning: RT3
• Construction: Built (year source: assessor/public record)
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen (approx. 10 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (approx. 10 x 10); Second bedroom on main level (approx. 10 x 10); Third bedroom on upper level (approx. 10 x 10); Fourth bedroom on upper level (approx. 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heat
• Interior features: Full basement; Main-level living room
• Laundry & utility: Forced air heating (natural gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.1% in Milwaukee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#55 in WI, #1,534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Milwaukee School District (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #337 of 342 in WI (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,017 units permitted in Milwaukee County in 2024 (803 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Milwaukee County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.45%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,274
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 23.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4926 N 37th St	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,357 (-1%)	2mo	$138,500	$102	84
4025 W Fairmount Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,350 (-2%)	4mo	$151,000	$112	82
3223 W Fairmount Ave	0.35mi	4/1.0	1,358 (-1%)	3mo	$124,000	$91	80
5324 N 34th St	0.48mi	4/1.0	1,324 (-4%)	2mo	$75,000	$57	70
5378 N 36th St	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,345 (-2%)	1mo	$165,000	$123	69
5331 N 37th St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,306 (-5%)	0mo	$133,000	$102	68
4633 N 30th St	0.69mi	4/1.0	1,407 (+2%)	1mo	$141,000	$100	63
5460 N 37th St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,436 (+5%)	2mo	$125,000	$87	59
5403 N 37th St	0.49mi	4/1.5	1,498 (+9%)	4mo	$129,000	$86	57
4650 N 38th St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,237 (-10%)	0mo	$145,000	$117	56
4557 N 42nd St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,228 (-11%)	3mo	$185,000	$151	45
5549 N 33rd St	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,241 (-10%)	3mo	$176,000	$142	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,271
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $49,205
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53209

• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,704 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,493/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5032 N 32nd St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,750	$1.61	12d	1	0.38mi
4334 W Eggert Pl Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1077	$1,695	$1.57	23d	1	0.41mi
4340 W Eggert Pl Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,695	$1.59	23d	1	0.42mi
5165-5167 N 45th St Unit 5165 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,200	$1.18	16d	1	0.49mi
4702 N 44th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,850	$1.76	43d	1	0.59mi
4703 N 45th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,695	$1.64	23d	1	0.65mi
5073 N 48th St Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1152	$1,595	$1.38	14d	1	0.66mi
5541 N 35th St #5543 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,195	$1.06	4d	1	0.67mi
4727 N 46th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	936	$1,700	$1.82	43d	1	0.68mi
5696 N 42nd St Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1023	$1,495	$1.46	23d	1	0.88mi
4900 N 58th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1455	$1,450	$1.00	4d	1	1.27mi
3931 W Kaul Ave Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,695	$1.21	43d	1	1.37mi
4139 N 50th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,600	$1.25	43d	1	1.40mi
3925 N 42nd St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,675	$1.29	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $169,900 Active 775-char remark
16. 2024-02-14
    historical 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    This 4 bedroom single family home is the perfect investment. Currently rented for $1,100 per month, this property is a fantastic investment opportunity. Schedule a showing today!

17. 2023-09-27
    listed $119,900 Active 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    This 4 bedroom single family home is the perfect investment. Currently rented for $1,100 per month, this property is a fantastic investment opportunity. Schedule a showing today!

18. 2023-05-23
    historical

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Cash Flowing single family home rented for 1250/mo. Don't miss out on this investment opportunity. Seller also has other properties that could be a package deal mls #'s 1823815, 1823814, 1823810, 1823811.

19. 2023-02-03
    listed $119,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Cash Flowing single family home rented for 1250/mo. Don't miss out on this investment opportunity. Seller also has other properties that could be a package deal mls #'s 1823815, 1823814, 1823810, 1823811.

20. 2022-08-01
    price $1,250
21. 2022-03-30
    historical
22. 2022-03-07
    price $125,900
23. 2021-12-02
    listed $99,900 Active
24. 2021-10-13
    soldstatus $570,000
25. 1994-09-01
    soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,493 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,818 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$325/yr (+$27/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,493
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$151
• After-tax cash flow: $2,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milwaukee School District
• NCES district ID: 5509600
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,339
• Composite: 11.61/100
• National rank: #9696
• State rank: #337 of 342 in WI

Livability — Milwaukee

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #1534

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milwaukee, WI
• County: Milwaukee County · 926,379 people
• City population: 573,768
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,170
• Household income: $48,486
• Rent vs Own: 56.2% rent · 43.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3390.0

Population outlook (Milwaukee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 995,758 people
• By 2030: 1,009,124 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 1,028,128 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 1,040,066 · +4.4%
• By 2075: 1,057,849 · +6.2%
• By 2100: 1,039,774 · +4.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Milwaukee

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.5) · D 68.3% · R 29.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 35.9pp · 2024: 38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.5 2020: D+39.9 2016: D+37.5 2012: D+34.6 2008: D+35.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.98%
• Current HPI: 172.4275
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.61%
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+309.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $169,900 METROMLS
• 2024-02-14 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2023-09-27 Listed $119,900 METROMLS
• 2023-05-23 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2023-02-03 Listed $119,900 METROMLS
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $1,250 RENT.
• 2022-03-30 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2022-03-07 Price Changed $125,900 METROMLS
• 2021-12-02 Listed $99,900 METROMLS
• 2021-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $570,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,493 · -15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.