18 Old Kings Hwy · Coleytown, CT
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $829 – $1,539
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 98°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 27.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 5 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 7 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +25.6/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +8.5/10.0
- 1% rule +7.5/10.0
- Schools +7.5/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$699,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Incredible renovation opportunity or the perfect setting for a future rebuild/expansion in the heart of true Lower Weston within the coveted Stonybrook neighborhood. Set on a flat, private, and picturesque 2-acre lot, this charming bungalow/ cottage offers endless potential in one of Weston's most sought-after lifestyle communities featuring private beach access, boating, tennis courts, playground, and walking trails. Filled with warmth and character, the original cottage-style architecture showcases timeless charm throughout. A standout feature is the signature family room with dramatic vaulted ceilings, creating a bright and inviting gathering space that captures the home's unique persona
Key facts
- Tennis courts
- Private beach access
- Exceptional privacy
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Property managed by a unit owners association
- HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee includes clubhouse, tennis, lake/beach access, trash pickup, snow removal, and road maintenance; Community amenities include playground/tot lot, private recreational facilities, and tennis courts; HOA fee $213 monthly
Exterior
- Parking: Driveway (gravel); 4 parking spaces
- Utilities: Shared well water; Septic system; Oil fuel tank located in basement
- Home design: Single-family home; Frame construction
- Construction: Wood shingle roof; Wood siding; Block foundation
- Exterior features: Level lot; Walk to water and beach rights
Interior
- Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
- Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
- Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Hot air heating (oil-fired); Oil hot water with 30-gallon tank
- Interior features: 11 total rooms; Partial, unfinished basement; One fireplace; Central air conditioning
- Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on lower level
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $699k).
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Weston School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #4 of 153 in CT (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 1% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Hurlbutt Elementary School (473 students, 1% FRL); Weston High School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A, #1 of 194 statewide, top 1%, 722 students, 1% FRL) — zoned schools at 1% FRL track the district average.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 72% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Weston School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
- Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Negotiation context
- Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 3 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $368k; list at $699k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.25% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.15%
- Cash-on-cash
- 10.19%
- DSCR
- 1.45
- GRM
- 6.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $1,060,599
- Comps found
- 8
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Garden Rd | 0.29mi | 3/3.0 (-1) | 2,448 (+1%) | 14mo | $1,050,000 | $429 | 68 |
| 6 Willow Rd | 0.09mi | 4/3.5 | 2,098 (-14%) | 10mo | $1,215,000 | $579 | 62 |
| 5 Woodland Way | 0.28mi | 5/2.5 (+1) | 2,756 (+14%) | 9mo | $915,000 | $332 | 50 |
| 33 Cardinal Rd | 0.58mi | 4/2.5 | 2,786 (+15%) | 1mo | $1,218,000 | $437 | 46 |
| 3701 North St | 0.58mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 2,352 (-3%) | 18mo | $1,079,000 | $459 | 45 |
| 100 Old Easton Tpke | 0.31mi | 5/3.0 (+1) | 2,744 (+13%) | 18mo | $829,000 | $302 | 44 |
| 3781 Redding Rd | 0.72mi | 4/2.5 | 2,640 (+9%) | 20mo | $940,000 | $356 | 33 |
| 30 High Noon Rd | 0.72mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,735 (+13%) | 21mo | $1,211,000 | $443 | 19 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -1.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.96×
- Total profit
- $-7,075
- Equity at exit
- $104,223
- IRR
- 8.8%
- Equity multiple
- 1.67×
- Total profit
- $131,618
- Equity at exit
- $60,437
Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 27 Tenant-Leaning
- State Connecticut
- 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 06883
- Active inventory
- 73
- Price-to-rent
- 6.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $8,718 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$3,666
- Tax from tax record
- −$1,056 /mo · $12,667/yr
- Insurance
- −$291
- HOA
- −$213
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$1,831
- Net cashflow
- $1,661
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $2,057 | -5% $1,859 | +0% $1,661 | +5% $1,464 | +10% $1,266 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $973 | -5% $1,317 | +0% $1,661 | +5% $2,006 | +10% $2,350 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $2,013 | -0.5pp $1,839 | base $1,661 | +0.5pp $1,480 | +1.0pp $1,296 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $174,750
- Closing costs
- $20,970
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 2 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 145 Lyons Plain Rd Weston, CT | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3100 | $9,500 | $3.06 | 3d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 118 Lyons Plain Rd Weston, CT | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2612 | $7,900 | $3.02 | 3d | 1 | 1.29mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $213 · $2,556/yr
Listing history 9 events
-
2026-06-13statusdays on market $699,000 Under Contract 13 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $699,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $699,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $699,000 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $699,000 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $699,000 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $699,000 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $699,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $699,000 Active 2 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $12,667 · $1,056/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $13,813 · $1,151/mo
- Expected delta
- +$1,146/yr (+$95/mo · 9.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $104,611
- − Mortgage interest
- −$39,155
- − Property taxes
- −$12,667
- − Insurance
- −$3,495
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$8,369
- − Management
- −$8,369
- − HOA
- −$2,556
- − Depreciation
- −$20,335
- Taxable income
- $9,666
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,320
- After-tax cash flow
- $17,618/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Weston School District
- NCES district ID
- 0905010
- Math proficiency
- 68% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 77% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $194,414
- Composite
- 75.21/100
- National rank
- #137
- State rank
- #4 of 153 in CT
Livability — Coleytown
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Population (ZIP)
- 10,335
Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2
- By 2040
- 685,031
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (78%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 78% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 5% Black 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 5%
- Foreign-born
- 16% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
- Languages at home
- 83% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut
- 2024 margin
- D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
- All cycles
- 2024: D+19.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -316.44%
- Current HPI
- 208.835
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.06%
- F500 in state
- 38
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Machinery | 4 | $38B |
|
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| Insurance | 3 | $71B |
|
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| Financial Services | 2 | $25B |
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| Transportation / Logistics | 2 | $18B |
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| Healthcare | 1 | $247B |
|
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| Telecommunications | 1 | $55B |
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Price history
+77.0% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-28 Listed $699,000 Smart MLS
- 1996-07-16 Sold (MLS) $367,500 Smart MLS
- 1996-04-06 Listed $389,000 Smart MLS
- 1994-09-28 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
- 1994-03-31 Listed $395,000 Smart MLS
Property tax history
+1.3%/yrLatest (2023): $12,667 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…