464 Bartell Rd #1 · Big Pine, CA 93513

$39,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1978 ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just Reduced! Freshly available and competitively priced. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,536 sq ft double-wide mobile home offers upgraded living space with a functional, open layout. Built in 1978 and thoughtfully improved, this home features: Interior upgrades throughout with modern finishes and clean presentation. Spacious floorplan with generous bedrooms and open living/dining flow. Dual pane windows, updated bathrooms, and upgraded flooring. Solid structure and overall very good condition. Easy access for transport - located in a convenient section of the park for moving crews. Important relocation requirement: This is a home only sale. The home must be moved out of the current park no later than June 30, 2026. Buyer is responsible for all moving expenses, permits, logistics, and for satisfying themselves regarding any required code upgrades or placement requirements. A strong opportunity for anyone with land, a placement plan, or a manufactured home project in motion. A spacious, upgraded double-wide at a competitive price - ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Built 1978
• Listed 75 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $852 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#529 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime A-, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Big Pine Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,086 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Inyo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Inyo County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.49%
• DSCR: 5.07
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $47,783
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.98×
• Total profit: $111,457
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93513

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $165/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $852

Break-even live

Break-even rent $303

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $874	-5% $863	+0% $852	+5% $840	+10% $829
Rent	-10% $743	-5% $797	+0% $852	+5% $906	+10% $961
Rate	-1.0pp $872	-0.5pp $862	base $852	+0.5pp $841	+1.0pp $831

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $39,900 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

    Just Reduced! Freshly available and competitively priced. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,536 sq ft double-wide mobile home offers upgraded living space with a functional, open layout. Built in 1978 and thoughtfully improved, this home features: Interior upgrades throughout with modern finishes and clean presentation. Spacious floorplan with generous bedrooms and open living/dining flow. Dual pane windows, updated bathrooms, and upgraded flooring. Solid structure and overall very good condition. Easy access for transport - located in a convenient section of the park for moving crews. Important relocation requirement: This is a home only sale. The home must be moved out of the current park no later than June 30, 2026. Buyer is responsible for all moving expenses, permits, logistics, and for satisfying themselves regarding any required code upgrades or placement requirements. A strong opportunity for anyone with land, a placement plan, or a manufactured home project in motion. A spacious, upgraded double-wide at a competitive price - ready for its next chapter.

18. 2026-04-05
    listed $49,900 Active 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

    Just Reduced! Freshly available and competitively priced. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,536 sq ft double-wide mobile home offers upgraded living space with a functional, open layout. Built in 1978 and thoughtfully improved, this home features: Interior upgrades throughout with modern finishes and clean presentation. Spacious floorplan with generous bedrooms and open living/dining flow. Dual pane windows, updated bathrooms, and upgraded flooring. Solid structure and overall very good condition. Easy access for transport - located in a convenient section of the park for moving crews. Important relocation requirement: This is a home only sale. The home must be moved out of the current park no later than June 30, 2026. Buyer is responsible for all moving expenses, permits, logistics, and for satisfying themselves regarding any required code upgrades or placement requirements. A strong opportunity for anyone with land, a placement plan, or a manufactured home project in motion. A spacious, upgraded double-wide at a competitive price - ready for its next chapter.

19. 2026-02-26
    price $44,999
20. 2026-02-06
    price $59,900
21. 2026-01-14
    price $64,900
22. 2025-12-22
    price $69,900
23. 2025-11-18
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $165 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $303 · $25/mo
• Expected delta: +$139/yr (+$12/mo · 84.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$165
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $10,165
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,440
• After-tax cash flow: $7,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Pine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,682
• Composite: 27.41/100
• National rank: #12395
• State rank: #1086 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Big Pine

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #17742

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Pine, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,525

Population outlook (Inyo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,399 people
• By 2030: 16,824 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 15,543 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 14,332 · -17.6%
• By 2075: 12,213 · -29.8%
• By 2100: 9,997 · -42.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Native American 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Inyo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.9% · R 49.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+0.1 2016: R+13.7 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.49%
• Current HPI: 316.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-50.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $39,900 IMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $49,900 IMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $44,999 IMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $59,900 IMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $64,900 IMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $69,900 IMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $79,900 IMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2021): $165 · +105.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.