38 Lathrop St · Buffalo, NY 14212

$74,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1820 3,000 sqft lot $58/sqft · 5% above area Est $71k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained and move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1 full bath home located at 38 Lathrop St in Buffalo. This owner-occupied property offers a functional layout with a spacious living room, a formal dining area, and kitchen. Additional attic space provides extra storage or potential use. No basement. Heated by space heaters. Ideal for owner-occupants or investors. Cash and conventional financing only.

Key facts

• 3,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1820
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $493 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $75k implies a 476% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,653 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.21%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,111
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: 5.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Krupp Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,320 (+2%)	1mo	$50,000	$38	75
89 Goodyear Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,360 (+5%)	15mo	$60,000	$44	53
48 Deshler St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,358 (+5%)	13mo	$76,500	$56	50
123 Peck St	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,180 (-9%)	23mo	$55,000	$47	47
51 Quincy St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,216 (-6%)	21mo	$95,000	$78	45
99 Quincy St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,429 (+10%)	16mo	$93,000	$65	45
38 N Central Ave Unit W	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,386 (+7%)	10mo	$110,000	$79	41
19 Person St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,159 (-11%)	20mo	$45,000	$39	40
48 N Central Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,194 (-8%)	21mo	$75,000	$63	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $72,208
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.96×
• Total profit: $187,989
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14212

• Home prices YoY: 20.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,279 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	19d	1	1.07mi
1777 Broadway Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	43d	1	1.07mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	14d	1	1.26mi
67 Moeller St Unit UPPER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	3d	1	1.38mi
67 Moeller St Unit LOWER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	23d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $74,900 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $74,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-04-06
   listed $74,900 Active 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Well-maintained and move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1 full bath home located at 38 Lathrop St in Buffalo. This owner-occupied property offers a functional layout with a spacious living room, a formal dining area, and kitchen. Additional attic space provides extra storage or potential use. No basement. Heated by space heaters. Ideal for owner-occupants or investors. Cash and conventional financing only.

6. 1994-09-12
   soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $5,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,205
• After-tax cash flow: $4,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• City population: 440,021
• Population (ZIP): 13,603

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Black 27% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Philippines, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 18% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 79.80%
• Current HPI: 471.6399
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+476.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 1994-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $56 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.