208 Lake Dale Dr · Auburndale, FL 33823

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,439 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1961 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AUBURNDALE GEM! NO HOA!! WELCOME TO THIS WELL-KEPT BEAUTY WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKE ARIANA. .. . 3 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 BATHS, OVERSIZED GARAGE, ORIGINAL OAK FLOORING THROUGHOUT. .. .UPGRADES INCLUDE: AIR CONDITIONER IS ONLY 3 YEARS OLD, ROOF IS 10 YEARS OLD, WATER HEATER IS 3 YEARS OLD, IRRIGATION ON WELL PUMP, GARAGE DOORS ARE 2 YEARS OLD, PUMP PIPING IS 1 YEAR OLD, KITCHEN CABINETS AND COUNTERS ARE 3 YEARS OLD. OVERSIZED LOT AND STORAGE SHED. .. .COMPLETELY FENCED HUGE BACK YARD! MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TO SEE TODAY

Key facts

• Original oak floors
• Recent updates
• Well maintained home

Tags

• LOCATED NEAR A LAKE
• WELL MAINTAINED HOME
• ORIGINAL OAK FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• HUGE FENCED BACKYARD
• RECENT UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoning R-2; Lot is paved; Lot acreage about 0.29 (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); One well on property; Unfurnished; No CDD; Not homestead; Universal Property ID available
• HOA & community: No HOA association listed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as residential (public records)
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lena Vista Elementary School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 975 students, 56% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.81%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,125
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,337
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,840/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $394	-5% $347	+0% $301	+5% $254	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $145	-5% $223	+0% $301	+5% $378	+10% $456
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $343	base $301	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Madalyn Ct Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,950	$1.32	15d	1	0.65mi
651 Duncan Cir W Auburndale, FL	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,595	$1.41	24d	1	0.95mi
4 Sandy Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	954	$1,620	$1.70	24d	1	1.07mi
727 Chestnut Ln Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,900	$1.16	11d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-02-23
   listed $165,000 Active
2. 2025-11-24
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-24
   historical
4. 2025-11-10
   price $199,900
5. 2025-10-02
   price $215,000
6. 2025-08-22
   price $220,000
7. 2025-06-28
   listed $225,000 Active
8. 2022-06-27
   soldstatus $255,000
9. 2022-06-24
   soldstatus $255,000 Closed 528-char remark

   Show marketing remark (528 chars)

   AUBURNDALE GEM! NO HOA!! WELCOME TO THIS WELL-KEPT BEAUTY WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKE ARIANA. .. . 3 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 BATHS, OVERSIZED GARAGE, ORIGINAL OAK FLOORING THROUGHOUT. .. .UPGRADES INCLUDE: AIR CONDITIONER IS ONLY 3 YEARS OLD, ROOF IS 10 YEARS OLD, WATER HEATER IS 3 YEARS OLD, IRRIGATION ON WELL PUMP, GARAGE DOORS ARE 2 YEARS OLD, PUMP PIPING IS 1 YEAR OLD, KITCHEN CABINETS AND COUNTERS ARE 3 YEARS OLD. OVERSIZED LOT AND STORAGE SHED. .. .COMPLETELY FENCED HUGE BACK YARD! MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TO SEE TODAY

10. 2022-05-21
    status Pending 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    AUBURNDALE GEM! NO HOA!! WELCOME TO THIS WELL-KEPT BEAUTY WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKE ARIANA. .. . 3 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 BATHS, OVERSIZED GARAGE, ORIGINAL OAK FLOORING THROUGHOUT. .. .UPGRADES INCLUDE: AIR CONDITIONER IS ONLY 3 YEARS OLD, ROOF IS 10 YEARS OLD, WATER HEATER IS 3 YEARS OLD, IRRIGATION ON WELL PUMP, GARAGE DOORS ARE 2 YEARS OLD, PUMP PIPING IS 1 YEAR OLD, KITCHEN CABINETS AND COUNTERS ARE 3 YEARS OLD. OVERSIZED LOT AND STORAGE SHED. .. .COMPLETELY FENCED HUGE BACK YARD! MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TO SEE TODAY

11. 2022-05-19
    listed $249,900 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    AUBURNDALE GEM! NO HOA!! WELCOME TO THIS WELL-KEPT BEAUTY WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKE ARIANA. .. . 3 LARGE BEDROOMS, 2 BATHS, OVERSIZED GARAGE, ORIGINAL OAK FLOORING THROUGHOUT. .. .UPGRADES INCLUDE: AIR CONDITIONER IS ONLY 3 YEARS OLD, ROOF IS 10 YEARS OLD, WATER HEATER IS 3 YEARS OLD, IRRIGATION ON WELL PUMP, GARAGE DOORS ARE 2 YEARS OLD, PUMP PIPING IS 1 YEAR OLD, KITCHEN CABINETS AND COUNTERS ARE 3 YEARS OLD. OVERSIZED LOT AND STORAGE SHED. .. .COMPLETELY FENCED HUGE BACK YARD! MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TO SEE TODAY

12. 1969-05-01
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,840 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,840 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,840
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,131
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$271
• After-tax cash flow: $3,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-28 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-24 Sold (MLS) $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-19 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1969-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+38.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,840 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.