211 Watertank Rd · Millboro, VA 24460

$154,200

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 739 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1984 0.25 ac lot $209/sqft · 15% below area Est $182k · 15% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

''Big Buck Retreat'' charming two-bedroom, one-bath cottage adjoining The George Washington National Forest, perfect as a weekend retreat or a permanent home. The property features a new deck overlooking the Mill Mountain Range, updated windows, a recently replaced roof, and a two-car garage. The walk-out basement provides ample storage, and the interior includes a cozy wood stove. Outside, you will find a woodshed and a double carport ideal for storing ATVs and sporting gear. Located only minutes from the stocked trout stream of Pads Creek and thousands of acres of National Forest, this home is ideally situated for all your sportsman activities. Alternatively, you can relax on the front porch of the nearby country store with a soda and a country ham sandwich.

Key facts

• Cozy wood stove
• Updated windows
• Double carport

Tags

• COVERED BACK PORCH
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• REPLACED ROOF
• COZY WOOD STOVE
• DOUBLE CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2-space carport; Garage faces front; electricity available in garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable and fiber optic available
• Home design: Detached single-story home; Entry level: One level
• Construction: Stick-built construction; Block foundation; Composition shingle roof; Has crawl space basement with exterior entry; partial and unfinished
• Exterior features: Front and rear porches and a patio; Wooded, rolling lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (electric and wood options)
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the main level; Double-pane, insulated windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (45.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (45.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bath County Public School District (rural): math 59% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #50 of 131 in VA (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Millboro Elementary (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #220 of 1,108 statewide, top 22%, 145 students, 100% FRL); Bath County High (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 184 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 36% district-wide (53 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Bath County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bath County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $83,739 (45.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,732
• List price: $154,200
• Delta: -15.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,032
• Equity at exit: $77,125

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $49,021
• Equity at exit: $125,310

Cash invested: $43,176 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24460

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$809
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $438/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $-248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $110,423

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-161	-5% $-204	+0% $-248	+5% $-291	+10% $-335
Rent	-10% $-314	-5% $-281	+0% $-248	+5% $-215	+10% $-182
Rate	-1.0pp $-170	-0.5pp $-209	base $-248	+0.5pp $-288	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,550
• Closing costs: $4,626
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,200 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,200 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,200 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,200 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,200 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,200 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,200 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,200 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,200 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (770 chars)

   ''Big Buck Retreat'' charming two-bedroom, one-bath cottage adjoining The George Washington National Forest, perfect as a weekend retreat or a permanent home. The property features a new deck overlooking the Mill Mountain Range, updated windows, a recently replaced roof, and a two-car garage. The walk-out basement provides ample storage, and the interior includes a cozy wood stove. Outside, you will find a woodshed and a double carport ideal for storing ATVs and sporting gear. Located only minutes from the stocked trout stream of Pads Creek and thousands of acres of National Forest, this home is ideally situated for all your sportsman activities. Alternatively, you can relax on the front porch of the nearby country store with a soda and a country ham sandwich.

10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $154,200 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $154,200 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $154,200 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,200 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,200 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,200 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,200 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,200 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $154,200 Active 763-char remark
19. 2026-04-24
    price $154,200 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    ''Big Buck Retreat'' charming two-bedroom, one-bath cottage adjoining The George Washington National Forest, perfect as a weekend retreat or a permanent home. The property features a new deck overlooking the Mill Mountain Range, updated windows, a recently replaced roof, and a two-car garage. The walk-out basement provides ample storage, and the interior includes a cozy wood stove. Outside, you will find a woodshed and a double carport ideal for storing ATVs and sporting gear. Located only minutes from the stocked trout stream of Pads Creek and thousands of acres of National Forest, this home is ideally situated for all your sportsman activities. Alternatively, you can relax on the front porch of the nearby country store with a soda and a country ham sandwich.

20. 2026-03-26
    status Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    ''Big Buck Retreat'' charming two-bedroom, one-bath cottage adjoining The George Washington National Forest, perfect as a weekend retreat or a permanent home. The property features a new deck overlooking the Mill Mountain Range, updated windows, a recently replaced roof, and a two-car garage. The walk-out basement provides ample storage, and the interior includes a cozy wood stove. Outside, you will find a woodshed and a double carport ideal for storing ATVs and sporting gear. Located only minutes from the stocked trout stream of Pads Creek and thousands of acres of National Forest, this home is ideally situated for all your sportsman activities. Alternatively, you can relax on the front porch of the nearby country store with a soda and a country ham sandwich.

21. 2026-03-26
    historical 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    ''Big Buck Retreat'' charming two-bedroom, one-bath cottage adjoining The George Washington National Forest, perfect as a weekend retreat or a permanent home. The property features a new deck overlooking the Mill Mountain Range, updated windows, a recently replaced roof, and a two-car garage. The walk-out basement provides ample storage, and the interior includes a cozy wood stove. Outside, you will find a woodshed and a double carport ideal for storing ATVs and sporting gear. Located only minutes from the stocked trout stream of Pads Creek and thousands of acres of National Forest, this home is ideally situated for all your sportsman activities. Alternatively, you can relax on the front porch of the nearby country store with a soda and a country ham sandwich.

22. 2026-03-25
    listed $160,000 Active 770-char remark

    Show marketing remark (770 chars)

    ''Big Buck Retreat'' charming two-bedroom, one-bath cottage adjoining The George Washington National Forest, perfect as a weekend retreat or a permanent home. The property features a new deck overlooking the Mill Mountain Range, updated windows, a recently replaced roof, and a two-car garage. The walk-out basement provides ample storage, and the interior includes a cozy wood stove. Outside, you will find a woodshed and a double carport ideal for storing ATVs and sporting gear. Located only minutes from the stocked trout stream of Pads Creek and thousands of acres of National Forest, this home is ideally situated for all your sportsman activities. Alternatively, you can relax on the front porch of the nearby country store with a soda and a country ham sandwich.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $438 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$827/yr (+$69/mo · 189.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,638
• − Property taxes: −$438
• − Insurance: −$771
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$804
• − Management: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$4,486
• Taxable loss: −$5,891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,414
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bath County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100330
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $46,995
• Composite: 53.25/100
• National rank: #1496
• State rank: #50 of 131 in VA

Livability — Millboro

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,087

Population outlook (Bath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,319 people
• By 2030: 4,198 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 3,897 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 3,719 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 3,404 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 4,049 · -6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 3% Two or more races 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.8% · R 76.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+42.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Current HPI: 148.5953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $149,900 RHR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $154,200 GAAR
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $154,200 RHR
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — RHR
• 2026-03-26 Delisted — RHR
• 2026-03-25 Listed $160,000 RHR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $438 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.