405 NW 4th St · Watford City, ND 58854

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Other · 140 Days on market

Built 1977 9,365 sqft lot ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique find! Come check out this three-bedroom, two-bath home with an attached one-stall garage. Upon entering, you are welcomed by a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. A loft area overlooks the main level and offers the perfect opportunity for an additional bedroom, home office, or creative space. To the left of the entry, you will find two bedrooms, a bonus room, and a main floor bathroom. To the right, enjoy the open-concept kitchen and dining area, complete with a sliding door that leads to a deck overlooking the city. The lower level offers tons of potential for an additional bedroom, second living room, and second bathroom. Outside, you are greeted by a nice-sized backyard, ideal for summer activities and entertaining. Don't let this one pass you by—contact your favorite realtor! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on HomePath.com. Attach certificate to offer up to 3% closing cost assistance. Check HomePath.com for more details. Restrictions apply.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Nice sized backyard
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LOFT AREA
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• DECK OVERLOOKING THE CITY
• NICE SIZED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage not specified, 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Finished area split between above and below grade
• Exterior features: Sloped, rectangular lot; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($66/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Watford City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#39 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mckenzie County 1 (rural): math 33% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #34 of 53 in ND (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 38 units permitted in McKenzie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McKenzie County population projected at +180% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,537 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,117
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-26,764
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58854

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,880/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,588

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $194,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $194,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $194,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $194,000 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Unique find! Come check out this three-bedroom, two-bath home with an attached one-stall garage. Upon entering, you are welcomed by a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. A loft area overlooks the main level and offers the perfect opportunity for an additional bedroom, home office, or creative space. To the left of the entry, you will find two bedrooms, a bonus room, and a main floor bathroom. To the right, enjoy the open-concept kitchen and dining area, complete with a sliding door that leads to a deck overlooking the city. The lower level offers tons of potential for an additional bedroom, second living room, and second bathroom. Outside, you are greeted by a nice-sized backyard, ideal for summer activities and entertaining. Don't let this one pass you by—contact your favorite realtor! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on HomePath.com. Attach certificate to offer up to 3% closing cost assistance. Check HomePath.com for more details. Restrictions apply.

16. 2026-04-23
    price $194,000

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Unique find! Come check out this three-bedroom, two-bath home with an attached one-stall garage. Upon entering, you are welcomed by a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. A loft area overlooks the main level and offers the perfect opportunity for an additional bedroom, home office, or creative space. To the left of the entry, you will find two bedrooms, a bonus room, and a main floor bathroom. To the right, enjoy the open-concept kitchen and dining area, complete with a sliding door that leads to a deck overlooking the city. The lower level offers tons of potential for an additional bedroom, second living room, and second bathroom. Outside, you are greeted by a nice-sized backyard, ideal for summer activities and entertaining. Don't let this one pass you by—contact your favorite realtor! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on HomePath.com. Attach certificate to offer up to 3% closing cost assistance. Check HomePath.com for more details. Restrictions apply.

17. 2026-04-02
    price $200,000 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Unique find! Come check out this three-bedroom, two-bath home with an attached one-stall garage. Upon entering, you are welcomed by a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. A loft area overlooks the main level and offers the perfect opportunity for an additional bedroom, home office, or creative space. To the left of the entry, you will find two bedrooms, a bonus room, and a main floor bathroom. To the right, enjoy the open-concept kitchen and dining area, complete with a sliding door that leads to a deck overlooking the city. The lower level offers tons of potential for an additional bedroom, second living room, and second bathroom. Outside, you are greeted by a nice-sized backyard, ideal for summer activities and entertaining. Don't let this one pass you by—contact your favorite realtor! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on HomePath.com. Attach certificate to offer up to 3% closing cost assistance. Check HomePath.com for more details. Restrictions apply.

18. 2026-04-02
    price $200,000

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Unique find! Come check out this three-bedroom, two-bath home with an attached one-stall garage. Upon entering, you are welcomed by a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. A loft area overlooks the main level and offers the perfect opportunity for an additional bedroom, home office, or creative space. To the left of the entry, you will find two bedrooms, a bonus room, and a main floor bathroom. To the right, enjoy the open-concept kitchen and dining area, complete with a sliding door that leads to a deck overlooking the city. The lower level offers tons of potential for an additional bedroom, second living room, and second bathroom. Outside, you are greeted by a nice-sized backyard, ideal for summer activities and entertaining. Don't let this one pass you by—contact your favorite realtor! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on HomePath.com. Attach certificate to offer up to 3% closing cost assistance. Check HomePath.com for more details. Restrictions apply.

19. 2026-02-19
    price $270,000
20. 2026-02-18
    price $270,000 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Unique find! Come check out this three-bedroom, two-bath home with an attached one-stall garage. Upon entering, you are welcomed by a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. A loft area overlooks the main level and offers the perfect opportunity for an additional bedroom, home office, or creative space. To the left of the entry, you will find two bedrooms, a bonus room, and a main floor bathroom. To the right, enjoy the open-concept kitchen and dining area, complete with a sliding door that leads to a deck overlooking the city. The lower level offers tons of potential for an additional bedroom, second living room, and second bathroom. Outside, you are greeted by a nice-sized backyard, ideal for summer activities and entertaining. Don't let this one pass you by—contact your favorite realtor! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on HomePath.com. Attach certificate to offer up to 3% closing cost assistance. Check HomePath.com for more details. Restrictions apply.

21. 2026-01-30
    listed $303,900 Active 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Unique find! Come check out this three-bedroom, two-bath home with an attached one-stall garage. Upon entering, you are welcomed by a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. A loft area overlooks the main level and offers the perfect opportunity for an additional bedroom, home office, or creative space. To the left of the entry, you will find two bedrooms, a bonus room, and a main floor bathroom. To the right, enjoy the open-concept kitchen and dining area, complete with a sliding door that leads to a deck overlooking the city. The lower level offers tons of potential for an additional bedroom, second living room, and second bathroom. Outside, you are greeted by a nice-sized backyard, ideal for summer activities and entertaining. Don't let this one pass you by—contact your favorite realtor! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on HomePath.com. Attach certificate to offer up to 3% closing cost assistance. Check HomePath.com for more details. Restrictions apply.

22. 2026-01-30
    listed $303,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Unique find! Come check out this three-bedroom, two-bath home with an attached one-stall garage. Upon entering, you are welcomed by a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. A loft area overlooks the main level and offers the perfect opportunity for an additional bedroom, home office, or creative space. To the left of the entry, you will find two bedrooms, a bonus room, and a main floor bathroom. To the right, enjoy the open-concept kitchen and dining area, complete with a sliding door that leads to a deck overlooking the city. The lower level offers tons of potential for an additional bedroom, second living room, and second bathroom. Outside, you are greeted by a nice-sized backyard, ideal for summer activities and entertaining. Don't let this one pass you by—contact your favorite realtor! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on HomePath.com. Attach certificate to offer up to 3% closing cost assistance. Check HomePath.com for more details. Restrictions apply.

23. 2024-12-11
    soldstatus $165,000
24. 2023-09-06
    historical 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Stick Built Home with two city lots! This home has vaulted ceilings on the main level with a loft. House has one bedroom, three nonconforming bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a living room, a bonus room, along with the kitchen and dining area. There is a small front deck & a poured concrete patio. The garage is attached and there is an additional small garage with a shop area on the second lot. Dishwasher may need repair. A Must See Property! Call Pam for showing. (RH)

25. 2019-04-23
    soldstatus $224,000
26. 2019-01-16
    listed $235,000 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Stick Built Home with two city lots! This home has vaulted ceilings on the main level with a loft. House has one bedroom, three nonconforming bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a living room, a bonus room, along with the kitchen and dining area. There is a small front deck & a poured concrete patio. The garage is attached and there is an additional small garage with a shop area on the second lot. Dishwasher may need repair. A Must See Property! Call Pam for showing. (RH)

27. 2007-03-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,880 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$21/yr (+$2/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$1,880
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$3,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$787
• After-tax cash flow: $853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mckenzie County 1
• NCES district ID: 3812540
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,150
• Composite: 31.76/100
• National rank: #5902
• State rank: #34 of 53 in ND

Livability — Watford City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #5688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watford City, ND
• County: McKenzie County · 9,368 people
• City population: 9,368
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 9,368
• Household income: $99,000
• Rent vs Own: 53.2% rent · 46.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 163.0

Population outlook (McKenzie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,775 people
• By 2030: 37,834 · +31.5%
• By 2040: 58,116 · +102.0%
• By 2050: 80,685 · +180.4%
• By 2075: 142,630 · +395.7%
• By 2100: 200,986 · +598.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Scottish 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McKenzie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.9pp toward R · 2008: -29.7pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+44.5 2008: R+29.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.91%
• Current HPI: 129.8723
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $194,000 MMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $194,000 GNMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $200,000 MMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $200,000 GNMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $270,000 GNMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $270,000 MMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $303,900 GNMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $303,900 MMLS
• 2024-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-06 Delisted — Badlands BOR MLS
• 2019-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $224,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-16 Listed $235,000 Badlands BOR MLS
• 2007-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,880 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.