8913 Jericho Ct · Polk City, FL 33868

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1984 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New improved price! Welcome home to this cozy 3-bedroom, 2 bath, 1032 sq. ft. , double wide manufactured home nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in Mount Olive Heights Community of Polk City. Situated on a . 3-acre lot with no HOA this property offers privacy and flexibility. Built in 1984 this home offers a comfortable split floorplan with newer counter tops in the kitchen and an inside laundry room for convenience. Enjoy outdoor living with a 20'-10' covered front porch and a spacious 29'x12 screened in back patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a carport, 3 storage sheds, expansive fenced in yard perfect for your pets and a newly installed vapor

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Split floorplan

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• NO HOA
• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED IN BACK PATIO
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoned PUD
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Southeast-facing; Double wide Fleetwood model 3443B
• Construction: Metal siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered, screened front porch; Porch; Outdoor lighting; Private mailbox; Chain link fence; Shed(s); Trees and landscaped yard; Cleared lot; Cul-de-sac location; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room and dining room combo; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry (washer and dryer included); Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#501 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Polk City Elementary School (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 606 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $169k implies a 2012% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,790 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.33%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,502
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $21,097
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33868

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,092/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $376	+0% $329	+5% $281	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $260	+0% $329	+5% $397	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $372	base $329	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5760 Viburnum Ct Polk City, FL	4.0	2.0	1425	$1,700	$1.19	24d	1	0.50mi
349 Honey Bee Ln Polk City, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,850	$1.40	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $169,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    status Active
16. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-18
    price $175,000
18. 2026-02-13
    listed $179,000 Active
19. 1984-02-01
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,092 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$311/yr (+$26/mo · 28.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,092
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $1,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$298
• After-tax cash flow: $3,646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Polk City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #9243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,676

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.52%
• Current HPI: 325.6917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2087.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,092 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.