2174 Cr 53 · Water Valley, MS 38965

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1967 0.40 ac lot $120/sqft · 40% below area Est $273k · 40% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Been looking for a home near the lake? It's about 1 mile to the entrance to Water Valley. 3-bed, 1-bath with a private entrance in the back bedroom. New flooring, new paint, and a gas fireplace. The central upstairs area is 5 years old. The addition has a new wall AC. Man Cave out back with electric. TVI Fiber internet.

Key facts

• New wall ac
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• GAS FIREPLACE
• CENTRAL UPSTAIRS AREA
• NEW WALL AC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#233 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Water Valley School District (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #61 of 130 in MS (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Yalobusha County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yalobusha County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,163 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.93%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,011
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -39.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,711
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,507
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38965

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $845/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $236	+0% $190	+5% $143	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $130	+0% $190	+5% $249	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $232	base $190	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $165,000 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Been looking for a home near the lake? It's about 1 mile to the entrance to Water Valley. 3-bed, 1-bath with a private entrance in the back bedroom. New flooring, new paint, and a gas fireplace. The central upstairs area is 5 years old. The addition has a new wall AC. Man Cave out back with electric. TVI Fiber internet.

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $169,900 Active 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Been looking for a home near the lake? It's about 1 mile to the entrance to Water Valley. 3-bed, 1-bath with a private entrance in the back bedroom. New flooring, new paint, and a gas fireplace. The central upstairs area is 5 years old. The addition has a new wall AC. Man Cave out back with electric. TVI Fiber internet.

19. 2026-02-26
    price $172,000
20. 2025-10-23
    price $174,900
21. 2025-10-06
    price $178,000
22. 2025-10-06
    price $169,900
23. 2025-09-08
    listed $179,900 Active
24. 2025-07-19
    historical
25. 2025-06-11
    price $175,000
26. 2025-03-18
    price $177,000
27. 2025-01-27
    price $179,900
28. 2024-11-29
    price $185,000
29. 2024-10-25
    listed $190,000 Active
30. 2024-05-17
    price $177,500
31. 2024-05-07
    price $179,900
32. 2024-04-28
    price $182,500
33. 2024-04-18
    price $185,000
34. 2024-03-29
    price $188,600
35. 2024-03-15
    price $189,900
36. 2024-03-01
    listed $195,600 Active
37. 2008-05-13
    soldstatus
38. 2000-03-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $845 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$459/yr (+$38/mo · 54.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$845
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$114
• After-tax cash flow: $2,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Water Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2804500
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,107
• Composite: 26.92/100
• National rank: #7083
• State rank: #61 of 130 in MS

Livability — Water Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #19538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Yalobusha County · 8,963 people
• City population: 8,963
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• Population (ZIP): 8,963
• Household income: $58,258
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 113.0

Population outlook (Yalobusha County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,062 people
• By 2030: 11,811 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 11,297 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 10,771 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 9,679 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 8,400 · -30.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 30% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yalobusha

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.9) · D 38.9% · R 59.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.9 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.65%
• Current HPI: 167.4446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $165,000 NCMBR
• 2026-04-01 Listed $169,900 NCMBR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $172,000 NCMBR
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $174,900 NCMBR
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $178,000 NCMBR
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $169,900 NCMBR
• 2025-09-08 Listed $179,900 NCMBR
• 2025-07-19 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $175,000 MLSU
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $177,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $179,900 MLSU
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $185,000 MLSU
• 2024-10-25 Listed $190,000 MLSU
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $177,500 NCMBR
• 2024-05-07 Price Changed $179,900 NCMBR
• 2024-04-28 Price Changed $182,500 NCMBR
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $185,000 NCMBR
• 2024-03-29 Price Changed $188,600 NCMBR
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $189,900 NCMBR
• 2024-03-01 Listed $195,600 NCMBR
• 2008-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $845 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.