2513 Spirea St · Jacksonville, FL 32209

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1953 9,244 sqft lot Est $101k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and full of potential, this 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family home offers comfort, space, and opportunity. Inside, you'll find a bright and inviting layout with cozy living areas and well-sized bedrooms, perfect for everyday living or a smart investment. Step outside to a spacious, fully fenced backyard—ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply enjoying your own private outdoor retreat. With plenty of room to add a pool, the yard offers endless possibilities to create your dream oasis. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking to downsize, this property delivers a great combination of functionality and future potential. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and local

Key facts

• 9,244 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 garage space); Total 2 parking spaces (1 covered)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family home; One story; Front entry; Faces south; Resale condition; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as one-story structure
• Exterior features: Open front porch; Fenced front yard; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window/wall heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($11/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grasp Academy (math 18% / reading 14%, grade F, #2,130 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 271 students, 52% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); William M. Raines High School (math 14% / reading 13%, grade F, #616 of 667 statewide, top 92%, 1,217 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 9202% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,043 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,352
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2570 Spirea St	0.11mi	2/1.0	824 (0%)	4mo	$90,000	$109	91
3332 Japonica Rd N	0.04mi	3/1.0 (+1)	828 (+0%)	2mo	$103,500	$125	91
2312 Lantana Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	844 (+2%)	12mo	$79,000	$94	73
6151 Ardisia Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	892 (+8%)	2mo	$128,000	$143	68
2736 Lippia Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	856 (+4%)	0mo	$62,500	$73	64
4105 Katanga Dr N	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	874 (+6%)	1mo	$122,500	$140	58
2603 Sunny Acres Dr N	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	854 (+4%)	4mo	$105,000	$123	56
6601 Cleveland Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	896 (+9%)	2mo	$82,500	$92	44
4158 Lockhart Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (+8%)	12mo	$145,000	$163	43
5545 Silverdale Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	890 (+8%)	12mo	$150,000	$169	42
6645 Cleveland Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (+8%)	6mo	$105,000	$118	42
5342 Mays Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+9%)	4mo	$74,500	$83	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-20,675
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-23,087
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32209

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,649/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $35	+0% $1	+5% $-33	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-44	+0% $1	+5% $46	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $31	base $1	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6114 Strawflower Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,200	$1.17	25d	1	0.24mi
2185 Benedict Rd Unit 2187 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	630	$995	$1.58	12d	1	0.43mi
2185 Benedict Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	630	$995	$1.58	25d	1	0.43mi
4144 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,095	$0.98	25d	1	0.58mi
2092 Benedict Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	816	$1,095	$1.34	25d	1	0.58mi
5531 Agra Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	16d	1	0.59mi
6601 Cleveland Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,400	$1.56	25d	1	0.71mi
3997 Leonnie Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$950	$1.13	9d	1	0.71mi
4294 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	25d	1	0.73mi
4211 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	25d	1	0.74mi
4236 Homer Rd N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	888	$1,250	$1.41	13d	1	0.75mi
5326 Mays Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.77mi
5428 Bunche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	25d	1	0.78mi
2268 W 44th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1077	$1,440	$1.34	6d	1	0.79mi
4177 Lorenzo Ct Unit 4 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$945	$1.12	3d	1	0.81mi
5217 Mays Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	9d	1	0.81mi
4253 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$975	$1.16	25d	1	0.83mi
2312 Palmdale St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	972	$1,231	$1.27	25d	1	0.84mi
5306 Paris Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	944	$1,150	$1.22	25d	1	0.85mi
5035 Campenella Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	875	$1,095	$1.25	25d	1	0.88mi
1959 W 45th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	895	$1,245	$1.39	16d	1	0.96mi
2171 W 40th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	25d	1	1.01mi
4440 Ken Knight Dr N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	716	$650	$0.91	16d	1	1.01mi
4543 Moncrief Rd W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	9d	1	1.03mi
2221 W 39th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	675	$800	$1.19	25d	1	1.03mi
5736 Teeler Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	852	$1,000	$1.17	25d	1	1.07mi
2050 W 40th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,350	$1.34	18d	1	1.10mi
1975 Rugby Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	992	$1,100	$1.11	9d	1	1.11mi
4655 Ken Knight Dr N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	646	$600	$0.93	25d	1	1.14mi
1823 W 44th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,500	$1.41	25d	1	1.15mi
1567 Rutledge Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,113	$1.06	25d	1	1.15mi
1803 W 44th St Unit 1803 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	9d	1	1.16mi
5352 Dodge Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,261	$1.20	25d	1	1.20mi
5350 Dodge Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	25d	1	1.21mi
1536 W 45th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	25d	1	1.32mi
5355 New Kings Rd Unit 24 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$700	$1.17	9d	1	1.38mi
5355 New Kings Rd Unit 21 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	6d	1	1.38mi
5355 New Kings Rd Unit 10 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	528	$775	$1.47	25d	1	1.44mi
3516 Penton St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	25d	1	1.46mi
2540 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	854	$1,295	$1.52	16d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    historical $1,290
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $1,290
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $140,000 Active
18. 2025-07-26
    historical $1,200
19. 2025-06-10
    listed $1,200
20. 2024-03-26
    historical $1,250
21. 2024-03-08
    price $1,250
22. 2024-03-01
    historical
23. 2024-02-23
    listed $1,300
24. 2024-01-31
    historical
25. 2024-01-26
    soldstatus $110,000
26. 2023-12-12
    price $110,000
27. 2023-10-23
    price $145,000
28. 2023-10-12
    price $155,000
29. 2023-09-14
    price $170,000
30. 2023-07-25
    listed $175,000 Active
31. 2023-07-21
    listed $179,000 Active
32. 2022-06-23
    soldstatus $127,000
33. 2022-05-30
    price $1,000
34. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus $127,000 Sold
35. 2022-04-16
    status Pending
36. 2022-04-07
    price $138,000
37. 2022-04-06
    listed $133,000 Active
38. 2021-12-07
    soldstatus $55,000
39. 2021-11-17
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold
40. 2021-11-03
    status Pending
41. 2021-10-28
    price $59,000
42. 2021-10-11
    price $65,000
43. 2021-10-04
    listed $69,000 Active
44. 2017-01-27
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,649 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,649 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,649
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$472
• After-tax cash flow: $483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,657
• Household income: $30,514
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.92%
• Current HPI: 189.5977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-93.5% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Rental Removed $1,290 BUILDIUM
• 2026-05-13 Listed for Rent $1,290 BUILDIUM
• 2026-05-11 Listed $140,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-26 Rental Removed $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2025-06-10 Listed for Rent $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2024-03-26 Rental Removed $1,250 BUILDIUM
• 2024-03-08 Price Changed $1,250 BUILDIUM
• 2024-03-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-02-23 Listed for Rent $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2024-01-31 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-12 Price Changed $110,000 MARMLS
• 2023-10-23 Price Changed $145,000 MARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Price Changed $155,000 MARMLS
• 2023-09-14 Price Changed $170,000 MARMLS
• 2023-07-25 Listed $175,000 realMLS
• 2023-07-21 Listed $179,000 MARMLS
• 2022-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-30 Price Changed $1,000 RENT.
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) $127,000 realMLS
• 2022-04-16 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-04-07 Price Changed $138,000 realMLS
• 2022-04-06 Listed $133,000 realMLS
• 2021-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-17 Sold (MLS) $55,000 realMLS
• 2021-11-03 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-10-28 Price Changed $59,000 realMLS
• 2021-10-11 Price Changed $65,000 realMLS
• 2021-10-04 Listed $69,000 realMLS
• 2017-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,649 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.