5194 Thoroughbred Blvd · Jacksonville, FL 32257

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1982 0.46 ac lot Est $332k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom/ 2 bath + an upstairs bonus room is bursting with potential and ready to call home or can be a great add to your portfolio! It sits on nearly half an acre and nestles up next to a pond on one side. Recent updates include bathrooms, a 2017 roof and a 2016 AC unit. Located near the highly rated Mandarin Oaks Elementary and Mandarin Middle School as well as grocery stores, restaurants and shopping!

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.37%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $331,938
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10769 Lariat Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,366 (0%)	5mo	$315,000	$231	88
5168 Horse Track Dr N	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,366 (0%)	2mo	$299,990	$220	86
10773 Spurs Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,366 (0%)	3mo	$339,900	$249	86
5159 Horse Track Dr N	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+2%)	12mo	$325,000	$232	74
10832 Percheron Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+7%)	4mo	$290,000	$199	72
10706 Saddlebred Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (+8%)	2mo	$385,000	$261	68
10876 Horse Track Dr E	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (+7%)	5mo	$320,000	$219	68
10836 Horse Track Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,291 (-6%)	7mo	$355,000	$275	68
10613 Parliament Pl	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,366 (0%)	4mo	$391,000	$286	62
11048 Buggy Whip Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (+14%)	1mo	$365,000	$235	46
11019 Crumpet Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,463 (+7%)	10mo	$355,000	$243	44
10334 Triple Crown Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,546 (+13%)	12mo	$397,500	$257	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,251
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-14,783
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32257

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,767/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,546

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $359	-5% $310	+0% $260	+5% $211	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $112	-5% $186	+0% $260	+5% $334	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $348	-0.5pp $305	base $260	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10870 Lippizan Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	24d	1	0.25mi
10959 Steeding Horse Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,188	$1.34	24d	1	0.41mi
10950 Rock Island Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,250	$1.24	5d	1	0.47mi
11064 Buggy Whip Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,201	$1.52	22d	1	0.57mi
11035 Crumpet Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$2,270	$1.76	17d	1	0.63mi
11159 Wethersfield Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,385	$1.45	8d	1	0.73mi
11170 Wandering Oaks Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.5	1460	$2,100	$1.44	15d	1	1.04mi
4403 Windergate Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1360	$1,395	$1.03	21d	1	1.12mi
4263 Losco Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,460	$1.67	3d	10	1.14mi
11001 Old Saint Augustine Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,658	$1.79	2d	64	1.15mi
11256 Windtree Dr E Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,800	$1.64	4d	1	1.19mi
11516 Joliet Falls Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1874	$2,200	$1.17	14d	1	1.21mi
4324 Queensway Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,989	$1.65	3d	1	1.23mi
11571 Greenland Hideaway Dr E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,350	$1.28	24d	1	1.25mi
4215 Windergate Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,550	$1.21	24d	1	1.32mi
10263 Whispering Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,104	$2.40	22d	10	1.37mi
10263 Whispering Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,088	$2.26	2d	1	1.37mi
11485 Oakfield Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	952	$1,400	$1.47	18d	1	1.49mi
11479 Oakfield Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	952	$1,299	$1.36	8d	2	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-02-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-30
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2026-01-05
   historical 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This 2 bedroom/ 2 bath + an upstairs bonus room is bursting with potential and ready to call home or can be a great add to your portfolio! It sits on nearly half an acre and nestles up next to a pond on one side. Recent updates include bathrooms, a 2017 roof and a 2016 AC unit. Located near the highly rated Mandarin Oaks Elementary and Mandarin Middle School as well as grocery stores, restaurants and shopping!

4. 2025-10-31
   price $299,000 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This 2 bedroom/ 2 bath + an upstairs bonus room is bursting with potential and ready to call home or can be a great add to your portfolio! It sits on nearly half an acre and nestles up next to a pond on one side. Recent updates include bathrooms, a 2017 roof and a 2016 AC unit. Located near the highly rated Mandarin Oaks Elementary and Mandarin Middle School as well as grocery stores, restaurants and shopping!

5. 2025-09-24
   price $310,000 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This 2 bedroom/ 2 bath + an upstairs bonus room is bursting with potential and ready to call home or can be a great add to your portfolio! It sits on nearly half an acre and nestles up next to a pond on one side. Recent updates include bathrooms, a 2017 roof and a 2016 AC unit. Located near the highly rated Mandarin Oaks Elementary and Mandarin Middle School as well as grocery stores, restaurants and shopping!

6. 2025-08-29
   price $299,000 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This 2 bedroom/ 2 bath + an upstairs bonus room is bursting with potential and ready to call home or can be a great add to your portfolio! It sits on nearly half an acre and nestles up next to a pond on one side. Recent updates include bathrooms, a 2017 roof and a 2016 AC unit. Located near the highly rated Mandarin Oaks Elementary and Mandarin Middle School as well as grocery stores, restaurants and shopping!

7. 2025-08-24
   price $305,000 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This 2 bedroom/ 2 bath + an upstairs bonus room is bursting with potential and ready to call home or can be a great add to your portfolio! It sits on nearly half an acre and nestles up next to a pond on one side. Recent updates include bathrooms, a 2017 roof and a 2016 AC unit. Located near the highly rated Mandarin Oaks Elementary and Mandarin Middle School as well as grocery stores, restaurants and shopping!

8. 2025-08-17
   price $310,000 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This 2 bedroom/ 2 bath + an upstairs bonus room is bursting with potential and ready to call home or can be a great add to your portfolio! It sits on nearly half an acre and nestles up next to a pond on one side. Recent updates include bathrooms, a 2017 roof and a 2016 AC unit. Located near the highly rated Mandarin Oaks Elementary and Mandarin Middle School as well as grocery stores, restaurants and shopping!

9. 2025-08-15
   listed $320,000 Active 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This 2 bedroom/ 2 bath + an upstairs bonus room is bursting with potential and ready to call home or can be a great add to your portfolio! It sits on nearly half an acre and nestles up next to a pond on one side. Recent updates include bathrooms, a 2017 roof and a 2016 AC unit. Located near the highly rated Mandarin Oaks Elementary and Mandarin Middle School as well as grocery stores, restaurants and shopping!

10. 2018-06-13
    soldstatus $197,900
11. 2018-06-08
    soldstatus $197,900 Sold 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Nature lovers paradise. Large .46 acre lot in Mandarin, newly landscaped. 2 story 2 bedroom PLUS non-conforming owner's suite or bonus room which includes: sit in window with built in storage, walk in closet, new double paned storm windows, and full bathroom. Other features: interior freshly painted, new roof (2017), new HVAC (fall 2016), new lighting, plumbing fixtures, stove, range hood, and storm door. Updated counter tops in kitchen and downstairs bathroom. 2 linen closets, pantry closet, tile in kitchen and bathrooms, laminate wood floors on first floor, vaulted ceilings, wood burning fireplace, enclosed laundry area, large built in storage room, fenced yard, covered back porch, open front porch, 2 car covered carport, city water/sewer, termite bond, disabled accessible, NO HOA

12. 2018-05-02
    status Pending 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Nature lovers paradise. Large .46 acre lot in Mandarin, newly landscaped. 2 story 2 bedroom PLUS non-conforming owner's suite or bonus room which includes: sit in window with built in storage, walk in closet, new double paned storm windows, and full bathroom. Other features: interior freshly painted, new roof (2017), new HVAC (fall 2016), new lighting, plumbing fixtures, stove, range hood, and storm door. Updated counter tops in kitchen and downstairs bathroom. 2 linen closets, pantry closet, tile in kitchen and bathrooms, laminate wood floors on first floor, vaulted ceilings, wood burning fireplace, enclosed laundry area, large built in storage room, fenced yard, covered back porch, open front porch, 2 car covered carport, city water/sewer, termite bond, disabled accessible, NO HOA

13. 2018-04-29
    historical Active - Contingent 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Nature lovers paradise. Large .46 acre lot in Mandarin, newly landscaped. 2 story 2 bedroom PLUS non-conforming owner's suite or bonus room which includes: sit in window with built in storage, walk in closet, new double paned storm windows, and full bathroom. Other features: interior freshly painted, new roof (2017), new HVAC (fall 2016), new lighting, plumbing fixtures, stove, range hood, and storm door. Updated counter tops in kitchen and downstairs bathroom. 2 linen closets, pantry closet, tile in kitchen and bathrooms, laminate wood floors on first floor, vaulted ceilings, wood burning fireplace, enclosed laundry area, large built in storage room, fenced yard, covered back porch, open front porch, 2 car covered carport, city water/sewer, termite bond, disabled accessible, NO HOA

14. 2018-04-12
    listed $195,000 Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Nature lovers paradise. Large .46 acre lot in Mandarin, newly landscaped. 2 story 2 bedroom PLUS non-conforming owner's suite or bonus room which includes: sit in window with built in storage, walk in closet, new double paned storm windows, and full bathroom. Other features: interior freshly painted, new roof (2017), new HVAC (fall 2016), new lighting, plumbing fixtures, stove, range hood, and storm door. Updated counter tops in kitchen and downstairs bathroom. 2 linen closets, pantry closet, tile in kitchen and bathrooms, laminate wood floors on first floor, vaulted ceilings, wood burning fireplace, enclosed laundry area, large built in storage room, fenced yard, covered back porch, open front porch, 2 car covered carport, city water/sewer, termite bond, disabled accessible, NO HOA

15. 1989-01-01
    soldstatus $61,000
16. 1984-08-01
    soldstatus $62,600
17. 1983-01-01
    soldstatus $50,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,767 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,767 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,767
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$88
• After-tax cash flow: $3,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,904
• Household income: $75,780
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2293.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.97%
• Current HPI: 310.465
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.02%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+247.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $175,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $299,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $310,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $299,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-24 Price Changed $305,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $310,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $320,000 realMLS
• 2018-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $197,900 Public Records
• 2018-06-08 Sold (MLS) $197,900 realMLS
• 2018-05-02 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-04-29 Contingent — realMLS
• 2018-04-12 Listed $195,000 realMLS
• 1989-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 1984-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,600 Public Records
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,767 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.