502 W Girard St · Atlas, PA 17851

$49,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · Other · 13 Days on market

Built 1920 ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very Well-maintained solid brick and stone home located in Atlas. It has a Large Living room with a unique Fireplace and cozy Dining area and updated Kitchen, 3 Spacious bedrooms, , 1 3/4 bath half-double with a finished basement, fenced in yard and one car detached garage. Please allow 24-hour notice for showings. Call or Text Dennis for your private Showing. 570-274-6409

Key facts

• Build in cabinet
• Large closet
• Dining room

Tags

• MUD ROOM
• LARGE CLOSET
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• DINING ROOM
• BUILD IN CABINET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#603 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.37%
• DSCR: 4.04
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $64,885
• Equity at exit: $31,774

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.1%
• Equity multiple: 12.06×
• Total profit: $151,721
• Equity at exit: $58,477

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,037/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $460

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $809	-5% $796	+0% $782	+5% $768	+10% $754
Rent	-10% $667	-5% $724	+0% $782	+5% $839	+10% $896
Rate	-1.0pp $806	-0.5pp $794	base $782	+0.5pp $769	+1.0pp $756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 W 4th St Mount Carmel, PA	3.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $49,000 Active
3. 2024-05-01
   historical
4. 2024-04-10
   price $57,800
5. 2024-03-27
   listed $62,800 Active
6. 2019-08-30
   soldstatus $77,000 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Very Well-maintained solid brick and stone home located in Atlas. It has a Large Living room with a unique Fireplace and cozy Dining area and updated Kitchen, 3 Spacious bedrooms, , 1 3/4 bath half-double with a finished basement, fenced in yard and one car detached garage. Please allow 24-hour notice for showings. Call or Text Dennis for your private Showing. 570-274-6409

7. 2019-08-30
   soldstatus $77,000

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Very Well-maintained solid brick and stone home located in Atlas. It has a Large Living room with a unique Fireplace and cozy Dining area and updated Kitchen, 3 Spacious bedrooms, , 1 3/4 bath half-double with a finished basement, fenced in yard and one car detached garage. Please allow 24-hour notice for showings. Call or Text Dennis for your private Showing. 570-274-6409

8. 2019-05-14
   listed $77,000 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   Very Well-maintained solid brick and stone home located in Atlas. It has a Large Living room with a unique Fireplace and cozy Dining area and updated Kitchen, 3 Spacious bedrooms, , 1 3/4 bath half-double with a finished basement, fenced in yard and one car detached garage. Please allow 24-hour notice for showings. Call or Text Dennis for your private Showing. 570-274-6409

9. 2012-06-04
   soldstatus $50,000
10. 2012-05-31
    soldstatus $50,000
11. 2012-03-28
    listed $57,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,037
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $9,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,199
• After-tax cash flow: $7,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Atlas

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #5824

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atlas, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $49,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $57,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-27 Listed $62,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $77,000 CSVBR
• 2019-05-14 Listed $77,000 CSVBR
• 2012-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-31 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CSVBR
• 2012-03-28 Listed $57,900 CSVBR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,037 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.