623 Vermilion · San Antonio, TX 78221

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2021 5,397 sqft lot $148/sqft · 14% below area Est $249k · 14% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Rent growth +0.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2021, this beautiful one-story home offers modern comfort and thoughtful upgrades in a vibrant community filled with amenities. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home has been freshly updated with brand-new carpet and fresh paint throughout, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The garage has also been recently painted, and the home includes new locks and second deadbolts for added security and peace of mind. Nestled on a desirable greenbelt lot, the property provides added privacy and scenic surroundings. Residents also enjoy fantastic neighborhood amenities including a clubhouse, pool, and tennis courts, making this home the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and lifestyle.

Key facts

• 5,397 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 14476% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,393 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.95%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,441
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -13.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
751 Vermilion	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+0%)	8mo	$234,999	$162	86
12060 Overton	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	2mo	$225,000	$155	81
526 Lew Pass	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+2%)	11mo	$229,343	$156	74
539 Lew Pass	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+2%)	12mo	$212,799	$144	74
506 Lew Pass	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+2%)	12mo	$237,999	$161	71
11742 Pelican Cv	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+13%)	4mo	$249,995	$153	61
711 Cook Bnd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-12%)	4mo	$154,000	$121	60
—	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,608 (+11%)	2mo	$90,000	$56	53
13463 Furyk Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-7%)	9mo	$192,049	$142	50
12003 Kite Bnd	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+15%)	11mo	$242,999	$146	49
514 Lew Pass	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+15%)	11mo	$223,999	$134	46
503 Lew Pass	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+15%)	12mo	$231,999	$139	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.03% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,865
• Equity at exit: $85,133

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,532
• Equity at exit: $122,847

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78221

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,861/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,090

Max offer price $153,393

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-227	-5% $-288	+0% $-349	+5% $-410	+10% $-470
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-414	+0% $-349	+5% $-284	+10% $-219
Rate	-1.0pp $-240	-0.5pp $-294	base $-349	+0.5pp $-404	+1.0pp $-461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11963 Sand Wedge Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.5	1474	$1,575	$1.07	5d	1	0.17mi
718 Albatross Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,650	$1.15	13d	1	0.20mi
742 Haas Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,100	$1.24	18d	1	0.26mi
12055 Links Pkwy San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,625	$1.10	24d	1	0.31mi
12030 Picard Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	4d	1	0.35mi
12015 Still Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1635	$1,600	$0.98	21d	1	0.38mi
2203 Cielo Rio, Lot 102 San Antonio, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1574	$2,360	$1.50	2d	152	0.46mi
934 Cook Bnd San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,445	$0.89	24d	1	0.48mi
11426 Four Iron Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1814	$1,695	$0.93	5d	1	0.55mi
13222 Dutra Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,595	$1.26	24d	1	0.64mi
1343 Art Wall Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,395	$0.97	44d	1	0.65mi
907 Stricker Path San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	24d	1	0.66mi
1019 Magrum Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,445	$1.11	11d	1	0.73mi
1019 Snedeker Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,449	$1.21	24d	1	0.74mi
1327 Mission Grande Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$1,081	$1.14	3d	1	0.75mi
1115 Janzen Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.78mi
12910 Clubhouse Blvd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,384	$1.50	2d	27	0.78mi
1038 Janzen Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,725	$1.53	22d	1	0.79mi
1119 Jordan Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,795	$1.41	44d	1	0.90mi
13806 S Strange Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,795	$1.08	24d	1	1.01mi
1003 Beck Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,490	$1.23	5d	1	1.26mi
1030 Snedeker DR San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,499	$1.00	24d	1	1.26mi
1011 Catalonia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,700	$1.16	24d	1	1.30mi
1015 Catalonia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	5d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    historical $1,475
16. 2026-04-08
    listed $1,475
17. 2026-04-03
    historical $1,475
18. 2026-03-30
    price $215,000 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Built in 2021, this beautiful one-story home offers modern comfort and thoughtful upgrades in a vibrant community filled with amenities. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home has been freshly updated with brand-new carpet and fresh paint throughout, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The garage has also been recently painted, and the home includes new locks and second deadbolts for added security and peace of mind. Nestled on a desirable greenbelt lot, the property provides added privacy and scenic surroundings. Residents also enjoy fantastic neighborhood amenities including a clubhouse, pool, and tennis courts, making this home the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and lifestyle.

19. 2026-03-14
    listed $1,475
20. 2026-03-11
    listed $220,000 New 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Built in 2021, this beautiful one-story home offers modern comfort and thoughtful upgrades in a vibrant community filled with amenities. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home has been freshly updated with brand-new carpet and fresh paint throughout, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The garage has also been recently painted, and the home includes new locks and second deadbolts for added security and peace of mind. Nestled on a desirable greenbelt lot, the property provides added privacy and scenic surroundings. Residents also enjoy fantastic neighborhood amenities including a clubhouse, pool, and tennis courts, making this home the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and lifestyle.

21. 2026-03-08
    historical $1,475
22. 2026-03-04
    listed $1,475

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,861 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,861 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$4,861
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$7,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,911
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,178
• Household income: $63,811
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1180.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 28% White 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 54%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.03%
• Current HPI: 251.1635
• Rent YoY: ▼ -7.21%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Rental Removed $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-08 Listed for Rent $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-03 Rental Removed $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $215,000 LERA
• 2026-03-14 Listed for Rent $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-11 Listed $220,000 LERA
• 2026-03-08 Rental Removed $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-04 Listed for Rent $1,475 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,861 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.