13807 Plum · Clearlake Oaks, CA 95423

$178,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Land · 242 Days on market

Built 1976 6,241 sqft lot $148/sqft · 100% below area $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller! Tranquil park like setting. This manufactured home looks out to open space with views of Mt Konocti. Large open living room with wood burning stove. Large covered deck that leads to the landscape yard on the side. Primary bedroom has a separate deck and entrance. Covered carport with a workshop that has electricity and a heater. Separate storage room. All of this on its own land.

Key facts

• Views of mt konocti
• Covered deck
• Open space

Tags

• PARK LIKE SETTING
• OPEN SPACE
• VIEWS OF MT KONOCTI
• COVERED DECK
• LANDSCAPE YARD
• SEPARATE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.3% in Clearlake Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#569 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.79%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,873,758
• List price: $178,000
• Delta: -99.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,941
• Equity at exit: $26,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $30,779
• Equity at exit: $15,390

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95423

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,543/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12755 Blue Heron Ct Clearlake Oaks, CA	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,000	$1.76	44d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Active 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Tranquil park like setting. This manufactured home looks out to open space with views of Mt Konocti. Large open living room with wood burning stove. Large covered deck that leads to the landscape yard on the side. Primary bedroom has a separate deck and entrance. Covered carport with a workshop that has electricity and a heater. Separate storage room. All of this on its own land.

2. 2026-03-16
   historical Active Under Contract 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Tranquil park like setting. This manufactured home looks out to open space with views of Mt Konocti. Large open living room with wood burning stove. Large covered deck that leads to the landscape yard on the side. Primary bedroom has a separate deck and entrance. Covered carport with a workshop that has electricity and a heater. Separate storage room. All of this on its own land.

3. 2026-03-05
   price $178,000 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Tranquil park like setting. This manufactured home looks out to open space with views of Mt Konocti. Large open living room with wood burning stove. Large covered deck that leads to the landscape yard on the side. Primary bedroom has a separate deck and entrance. Covered carport with a workshop that has electricity and a heater. Separate storage room. All of this on its own land.

4. 2025-11-18
   price $179,000 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Tranquil park like setting. This manufactured home looks out to open space with views of Mt Konocti. Large open living room with wood burning stove. Large covered deck that leads to the landscape yard on the side. Primary bedroom has a separate deck and entrance. Covered carport with a workshop that has electricity and a heater. Separate storage room. All of this on its own land.

5. 2025-09-27
   listed $199,500 Active 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Tranquil park like setting. This manufactured home looks out to open space with views of Mt Konocti. Large open living room with wood burning stove. Large covered deck that leads to the landscape yard on the side. Primary bedroom has a separate deck and entrance. Covered carport with a workshop that has electricity and a heater. Separate storage room. All of this on its own land.

6. 2017-03-30
   soldstatus $120,000 Sold 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

7. 2017-03-30
   soldstatus $120,000 Closed Sale

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

8. 2017-03-30
   soldstatus $120,000

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

9. 2017-03-29
   status Pending Sale
10. 2017-01-18
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

11. 2017-01-18
    historical Contingent 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

12. 2016-12-21
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

13. 2016-12-21
    status Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

14. 2016-12-02
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

15. 2016-12-02
    status Pending 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

16. 2016-11-01
    price $119,500

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

17. 2016-11-01
    price $119,500 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

18. 2016-10-13
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

19. 2016-10-13
    status Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

20. 2016-09-10
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

21. 2016-09-10
    historical Contingent 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

22. 2016-09-07
    listed $123,500 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Located in Orchard Shores with a clubhouse and pool for homeowners. 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home that has been updated/remodeled with laminate flooring, wood stove, french doors in master opening to deck that overlooks open area pasture with wildlife and views. Fenced entry to home with huge covered deck, landscaping, gardens, enclosed bonus room, detached workshop/office, double carport all in a private setting with lots to offer!

23. 2016-09-06
    listed $123,500 Active
24. 2016-09-06
    status Active
25. 2016-09-06
    historical
26. 2016-09-05
    historical Off-Market
27. 2016-09-05
    historical Hold Do Not Show
28. 2016-08-18
    price $122,000
29. 2016-08-05
    price $126,000
30. 2016-08-05
    price $126,000
31. 2016-07-06
    listed $128,000 Active
32. 2016-06-08
    price $128,000
33. 2016-05-12
    listed $130,000 Active
34. 2016-01-31
    historical Off-Market
35. 2016-01-31
    historical
36. 2015-10-23
    listed $132,000 Active
37. 2015-10-21
    listed $132,000 Active
38. 2000-08-01
    soldstatus $61,000
39. 1996-08-01
    soldstatus $59,000
40. 1990-07-25
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$1,543
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable income: $2,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$512
• After-tax cash flow: $4,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake Oaks

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #18675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake Oaks, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,432

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.32%
• Current HPI: 178.9812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+408.6% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $178,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-27 Listed $199,500 CRMLS
• 2017-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-30 Sold (MLS) $120,000 CRMLS
• 2017-03-30 Sold (MLS) $120,000 BAREIS
• 2017-03-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-01-18 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2017-01-18 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2016-12-21 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2016-12-21 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2016-12-02 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2016-12-02 Pending — BAREIS
• 2016-11-01 Price Changed $119,500 CRMLS
• 2016-11-01 Price Changed $119,500 BAREIS
• 2016-10-13 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2016-10-13 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2016-09-10 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2016-09-10 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2016-09-07 Listed $123,500 BAREIS
• 2016-09-06 Listed $123,500 CRMLS
• 2016-09-06 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2016-09-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-09-05 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2016-09-05 Delisted — BAREIS
• 2016-08-18 Price Changed $122,000 CRMLS
• 2016-08-05 Price Changed $126,000 CRMLS
• 2016-08-05 Price Changed $126,000 BAREIS
• 2016-07-06 Listed $128,000 BAREIS
• 2016-06-08 Price Changed $128,000 CRMLS
• 2016-05-12 Listed $130,000 CRMLS
• 2016-01-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-01-31 Delisted — BAREIS
• 2015-10-23 Listed $132,000 BAREIS
• 2015-10-21 Listed $132,000 CRMLS
• 2000-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 1990-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,543 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.