The Lincoln Plan · Haslet, TX 76052

$536,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,001 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $557,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (The Lincoln)
• Construction: Living area approximately 3001; New construction (2026 listing year)
• Exterior features: Listing address: 815 Feathergrass Pl, Haslet, TX 76052

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan name: The Lincoln; Active new construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $536,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $682,982.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $537k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $452k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $396k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.9% in Haslet — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#538 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Haslet El (math 42% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 884 students, 25% FRL); Truett Wilson Middle (math 51% / reading 45%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,414 students, 30% FRL); V R Eaton H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 3,273 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1100 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($529k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $395,688 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.00%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $682,982
• List price: $536,990
• Delta: -16.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
768 Brookwood Blvd	0.23mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+3%)	0mo	$667,900	$216	80
764 Brookwood Blvd	0.24mi	4/4.5	2,885 (-4%)	1mo	$649,900	$225	74
772 Barberry Blvd	0.45mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+3%)	1mo	$712,900	$230	70
773 White Sage Rd	0.18mi	4/3.5	3,334 (+11%)	1mo	$850,900	$255	68
770 Mandrake Rd	0.41mi	4/3.0	3,206 (+7%)	0mo	$700,900	$219	67
775 Brookwood Blvd	0.26mi	4/3.5	3,295 (+10%)	1mo	$729,900	$222	67
2088 Roquette Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,994 (-0%)	0mo	$679,900	$227	67
1223 Caraway Ln	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,762 (-8%)	1mo	$525,000	$190	60
1231 Aster Pl	0.49mi	4/3.5	3,283 (+9%)	1mo	$799,999	$244	56
736 Red Cedar Rd	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,561 (-15%)	0mo	$558,900	$218	48
1278 White Pine Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,574 (-14%)	0mo	$607,900	$236	41
691 Red Cedar Rd	0.66mi	4/3.5	2,561 (-15%)	1mo	$594,900	$232	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-219,636
• Equity at exit: $101,835

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-351,354
• Equity at exit: $59,052

Cash invested: $191,235 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76052

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1100
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,582
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$854 /mo · $10,245/yr
• Insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$831
• Net cashflow: $-1,594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,975

Max offer price $452,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,122	-5% $-1,358	+0% $-1,594	+5% $-1,830	+10% $-2,066
Rent	-10% $-1,907	-5% $-1,750	+0% $-1,594	+5% $-1,438	+10% $-1,281
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,250	-0.5pp $-1,420	base $-1,594	+0.5pp $-1,771	+1.0pp $-1,951

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $170,745
• Closing costs: $20,489
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
552 Horsetail Way Haslet, TX	4.0	3.5	3430	$4,500	$1.31	7d	1	0.51mi
1190 Blazingstar Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.5	3320	$3,590	$1.08	26d	1	0.59mi
550 Peppercress Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	3.5	3167	$4,400	$1.39	45d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $536,990 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $536,990 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $536,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $536,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $536,990 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $536,990 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $536,990 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $536,990 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $536,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $536,990 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $536,990 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $536,990 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on marketlisting id $557,990 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $569,990 Active 690 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $569,990 Active 689 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    price $569,990
17. 2026-01-17
    price $549,990
18. 2025-11-17
    price $539,990
19. 2025-11-02
    price $529,990
20. 2025-10-02
    price $509,990
21. 2025-04-01
    price $641,990
22. 2024-11-02
    price $631,990
23. 2024-07-12
    listed $624,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,258
• − Property taxes: −$10,245
• − Insurance: −$3,415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,799
• − Management: −$3,799
• − Depreciation: −$19,869
• Taxable loss: −$31,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,656
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Haslet

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #538
• US rank: #10504

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haslet, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 34,249
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,249
• Household income: $143,555
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 358.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.77%
• Current HPI: 235.7417
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B