1604 Victoria Pl · Celina, TX 75009

$474,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,351 sqft · Other public records · 268 Days on market

Built 2025 4,574 sqft lot $135/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN READY! Two-story entry with 19-foot ceiling flows into spacious two-story family room with a wood mantel fireplace. Open concept floor plan with an island kitchen that offers a built-in seating space, 5-burner gas cooktop and a separate dining area with a wall of windows. Secluded primary suite with a wall of windows. Primary bath offers a French door entry with dual vanities, a large glass enclosed shower and a walk-in closet. The second level boasts a large game room, guest suite with full bathroom and secondary bedrooms. Mud room just off the two-car garage.

Key facts

• Two story entry
• 5 burner gas cooktop
• Island kitchen

Tags

• TWO STORY ENTRY
• WOOD MANTEL FIREPLACE
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• BUILT IN SEATING SPACE
• 5 BURNER GAS COOKTOP
• SECLUDED PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $429k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $418k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2895 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $417,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.11%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-60,648
• Equity at exit: $70,809

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-64,649
• Equity at exit: $41,061

Cash invested: $132,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2895
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,490
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,351/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$902
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,716

Max offer price $474,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,725
• Closing costs: $14,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	1d	1	0.07mi
2437 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	3257	$3,611	$1.11	43d	1	0.33mi
1720 Yaupon Ct Celina, TX	4.0	5.0	3271	$3,450	$1.05	24d	1	1.16mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$3,200	$1.14	24d	1	1.34mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	18d	1	1.45mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   price $474,900
3. 2026-02-11
   price $499,900
4. 2026-02-02
   price $500,900
5. 2026-01-14
   price $499,900
6. 2026-01-13
   price $504,900
7. 2026-01-12
   price $502,900
8. 2025-11-26
   price $499,900
9. 2025-06-11
   listed $549,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,351 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,691 · $724/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,340/yr (+$612/mo · 543.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,351
• − Insurance: −$2,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,122
• − Management: −$4,122
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$13,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$596
• After-tax cash flow: $6,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $474,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $500,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $504,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $502,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2025-06-11 Listed $549,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

-8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,351 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.