6217 Plymouth Rock Ln, · Citrus Heights, CA 95621

$48,888

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1977 $73/sqft · 26% above area Est $39k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**$1000 cash and 3 months FREE RENT ** ASK ME HOW ** CAN ASSIST WITH FINANCING, MIN 5% DOWN **. This lovely, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom is ready for your family to call home! Features include a covered porch, 2 storage sheds, a 2 car carport. Located in desirable Creekside Estates. Some of the amenities include a relaxing swimming pool, play area for children, a community garden, and a clubhouse for entertaining. Close to freeway, shopping, and public transportation.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Play area
• Carport

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• STORAGE SHEDS
• CARPORT
• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAY AREA
• COMMUNITY GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.7% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $338 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,021 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.74%
• DSCR: 5.84
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,408
• List price: $48,888
• Delta: 24.05%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6222 Gettysburg Ln	0.04mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	17mo	$70,000	$104	84
5935 Auburn Blvd #160	0.17mi	2/1.5	684 (+2%)	4mo	$45,000	$66	84
5722 Clearwater Dr #18	0.30mi	1/1.0 (-1)	675 (+0%)	1mo	$54,900	$81	80
5935 Auburn Blvd #189	0.22mi	2/2.0	690 (+3%)	2mo	$29,900	$43	79
5935 Auburn Blvd #78	0.23mi	1/1.5 (-1)	672 (0%)	9mo	$38,000	$57	74
6226 Manitoba Ave #70	0.29mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (+4%)	12mo	$40,000	$57	65
6219 Tyee Ave #142	0.18mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	20mo	$59,000	$82	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.04×
• Total profit: $68,963
• Equity at exit: $7,289

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.20×
• Total profit: $153,269
• Equity at exit: $4,227

Cash invested: $13,689 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95621

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$256
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $168/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $1,240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $368

Max offer price $48,888

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,222
• Closing costs: $1,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6011 Shadow Ln Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$2,348	$3.01	1d	15	0.20mi
5979 Devecchi Ave Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,871	$2.41	1d	15	0.28mi
6430 Verner Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	705	$2,295	$3.25	23d	1	0.50mi
5501 Keoncrest Cir Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	1d	1	0.80mi
6546 Auburn Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	624	$1,853	$2.97	4d	10	0.88mi
6650 Crosswoods Cir Citrus Heights, CA	1.0	1.0	465	$1,575	$3.39	1d	6	1.19mi
5244 Hackberry Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,712	$2.41	43d	1	1.21mi
5425 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,650	$2.10	20d	5	1.22mi
5322 Hemlock St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	1d	2	1.28mi
5500 Foothill Garden Ct Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,472	$1.96	1d	2	1.31mi
5755 Callie Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	723	$2,000	$2.76	3d	13	1.35mi
5226 Hemlock St #35 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	682	$1,650	$2.42	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,888 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,888 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,888 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,888 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,888 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,888 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,888 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,888 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $48,888 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $48,888 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $48,888 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $48,888 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $48,888 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,888 Active 152 DOM
15. 2025-12-30
    listed $48,888 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    **$1000 cash and 3 months FREE RENT ** ASK ME HOW ** CAN ASSIST WITH FINANCING, MIN 5% DOWN **. This lovely, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom is ready for your family to call home! Features include a covered porch, 2 storage sheds, a 2 car carport. Located in desirable Creekside Estates. Some of the amenities include a relaxing swimming pool, play area for children, a community garden, and a clubhouse for entertaining. Close to freeway, shopping, and public transportation.

16. 2025-09-18
    historical
17. 2025-09-06
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $168 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$204/yr (+$17/mo · 121.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 32% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,738
• − Property taxes: −$168
• − Insurance: −$244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − Depreciation: −$1,422
• Taxable income: $14,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,591
• After-tax cash flow: $11,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,442
• Household income: $80,901
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1854.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.14%
• Current HPI: 351.9333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Listed $48,888 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-06 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $168 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.