638 N Cox Ave · Republic, MO 65738

$258,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2006 9,583 sqft lot $195/sqft · at area comps Est $273k · 6% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This quiet home is perfectly located nearby Highway 60 giving quick access to stores and restaurants in Republic and Springfield. Private backyard includes room for gardening and a shed for storage. Enjoy updated lighting throughout the kitchen and living-room as well as the recently serviced heater. The roof has been replaced and the attic has had additional insulation installed. Come make it yours.

Key facts

• Shed for storage
• Private backyard
• Replaced roof

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• ROOM FOR GARDENING
• SHED FOR STORAGE
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• REPLACED ROOF
• ADDITIONAL INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Republic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Republic R-III (suburban): math 56% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,773 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,075
• List price: $258,000
• Delta: -5.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2418 E Terrier St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	2mo	$260,467	$200	80
2429 E Timber Oak St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+2%)	3mo	$262,229	$194	79
2417 E Timber Oak St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+2%)	4mo	$261,747	$194	79
2533 E Moonlight St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+1%)	3mo	$245,000	$182	79
580 N Lynette Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+0%)	2mo	$219,900	$165	74
2321 E Lee St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+6%)	4mo	$235,000	$167	74
2738 E Moonlight St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,325 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$181	72
435 N Claremont Pl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,375 (+4%)	3mo	$237,000	$172	68
2462 E Beagle St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+14%)	3mo	$269,900	$179	53
401 N Elmwood Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-13%)	3mo	$197,000	$171	49
1180 N Cardinal Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+13%)	1mo	$287,500	$192	48
508 N Glenwood Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,461 (+10%)	4mo	$250,000	$171	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-50,036
• Equity at exit: $38,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-51,088
• Equity at exit: $22,307

Cash invested: $72,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65738

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,622/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $232,206

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,500
• Closing costs: $7,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
644 N Cox Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,595	$1.16	44d	1	0.03mi
625 Turner Ave Republic, MO	2.0–3.0	2.5	1609	$1,895	$1.18	14d	6	0.18mi
923 N Blake AVE Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	44d	1	0.26mi
922 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	44d	1	0.27mi
929 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	44d	1	0.28mi
928 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	44d	1	0.28mi
937 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	44d	1	0.28mi
810 N Oakwood Ave Republic, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1239	$924	$0.75	14d	4	0.30mi
2488 Timber Oak St Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1550	$1,895	$1.22	44d	1	0.34mi
1031 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	44d	1	0.38mi
1605 E Hines St Republic, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,060	$1.26	14d	10	0.46mi
1090 N Northwood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,200	$0.91	14d	1	0.49mi
101 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,250	$1.18	44d	1	0.57mi
1740 E Hamilton St Republic, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$1,395	$1.26	44d	7	0.57mi
109 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,295	$1.13	44d	1	0.84mi
1413 N Lyon Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,799	$1.15	44d	1	1.14mi
2983 Heritage St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,799	$1.15	23d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $258,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $258,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $258,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $258,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $258,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    listed $265,000 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This quiet home is perfectly located nearby Highway 60 giving quick access to stores and restaurants in Republic and Springfield. Private backyard includes room for gardening and a shed for storage. Enjoy updated lighting throughout the kitchen and living-room as well as the recently serviced heater. The roof has been replaced and the attic has had additional insulation installed. Come make it yours.

18. 2018-05-25
    soldstatus 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home in the heart of Republic. Enjoy the beautiful rock fireplace in a living room that includes new laminate wood flooring and vaulted ceilings. You will love the large master bath that has his and her closets plus a linen closet, jetted tub, double sinks and beautiful vaulted ceilings. The kitchen has granite counter tops and a pantry in addition to lots of cabinets. This home has brand new carpet and paint, a privacy fence, in-ground sprinkler system, wood 6-panel doors and trim. There is also access to the crawlspace from inside the home for storm shelter. Quick and easy access to everything in Republic!

19. 2018-05-25
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home in the heart of Republic. Enjoy the beautiful rock fireplace in a living room that includes new laminate wood flooring and vaulted ceilings. You will love the large master bath that has his and her closets plus a linen closet, jetted tub, double sinks and beautiful vaulted ceilings. The kitchen has granite counter tops and a pantry in addition to lots of cabinets. This home has brand new carpet and paint, a privacy fence, in-ground sprinkler system, wood 6-panel doors and trim. There is also access to the crawlspace from inside the home for storm shelter. Quick and easy access to everything in Republic!

20. 2018-04-07
    listed $139,900 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home in the heart of Republic. Enjoy the beautiful rock fireplace in a living room that includes new laminate wood flooring and vaulted ceilings. You will love the large master bath that has his and her closets plus a linen closet, jetted tub, double sinks and beautiful vaulted ceilings. The kitchen has granite counter tops and a pantry in addition to lots of cabinets. This home has brand new carpet and paint, a privacy fence, in-ground sprinkler system, wood 6-panel doors and trim. There is also access to the crawlspace from inside the home for storm shelter. Quick and easy access to everything in Republic!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,503 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$881/yr (+$73/mo · 54.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,452
• − Property taxes: −$1,622
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable loss: −$6,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,526
• After-tax cash flow: $-226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic R-III
• NCES district ID: 2926220
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,329
• Composite: 48.3/100
• National rank: #2152
• State rank: #19 of 324 in MO

Livability — Republic

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Republic, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 21,283
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,283
• Household income: $67,841
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 217.1512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+89.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $265,000 SOMO
• 2018-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-25 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2018-04-07 Listed $139,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,622 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.