3550 China Gdn #38 · Diamond Springs, CA 95667

$69,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured public records · 244 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 55+ community. Here's your opportunity to put your touch on this home. Open floorplan with large living room leading into kitchen, dining and den. Sliding doors lead to a screened in room, perfect for hobbies! Master suite offers large closet and bath has dbl sinks and a tub with shower above. Inside laundry room has gas and electric hookups for dryer and washer is included.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Large closet
• Open floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SCREENED IN ROOM
• MASTER SUITE
• LARGE CLOSET
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 3550 China Gdn #38, Placerville, CA 95667; Directions: Hwy 50 to South on Missouri Flat. Left on China Garden. Right into park to 2nd left to #38 on right just past the guest parking area.
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in laundry; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park, double wide; Original condition; Built in 1972
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal skirting; Viking make (manufactured home)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Storage area; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing refrigerator; Built-in gas oven and double oven; Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Plumbed for ice maker / ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including a master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Dual-pane partial windows; Carpeted porch; Screened room; Pantry cabinet, kitchen island, and laminate counters; Kitchen/family combo with dining bar; Unfurnished; Storage area inside (storage/shed)
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Electric and gas hook-ups; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.9% vs local median 2.3% in Diamond Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,239 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Mother Lode Union Elementary (rural): math 36% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #726 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.09%
• DSCR: 4.43
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,312
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3550 China Garden Rd #44	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-3%)	7mo	$100,000	$69	80
3550 China Gdn #136	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+5%)	7mo	$82,500	$53	80
3550 China Garden Rd #63	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	20mo	$142,000	$99	74
3550 China Garden Rd #54	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	22mo	$131,000	$91	74
3550 China Garden Rd #150	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (+5%)	7mo	$200,000	$128	74
3550 China Garden Rd #145	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	11mo	$150,000	$108	72
3550 China Garden Rd #119	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,510 (+2%)	23mo	$157,500	$104	72
3550 China Gdn #4	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	23mo	$139,500	$97	69
3550 China Garden Rd #70	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-13%)	10mo	$95,000	$73	67
3550 China Garden Rd #131	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,305 (-12%)	19mo	$166,000	$127	59
350 Pleasant Vly #74	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (-14%)	20mo	$195,000	$152	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $79,476
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.0%
• Equity multiple: 12.42×
• Total profit: $222,315
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95667

• Rents YoY: 12.5%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $227/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $1,250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $522

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,290	-5% $1,270	+0% $1,250	+5% $1,231	+10% $1,211
Rent	-10% $1,084	-5% $1,167	+0% $1,250	+5% $1,333	+10% $1,416
Rate	-1.0pp $1,285	-0.5pp $1,268	base $1,250	+0.5pp $1,232	+1.0pp $1,214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
579 Racquet Way Diamond Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	968	$1,900	$1.96	2d	1	0.64mi
4012 Wimbledon Dr Diamond Springs, CA	3.0	2.5	1233	$2,250	$1.82	2d	1	0.71mi
3884 Rosey Way Placerville, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,595	$2.36	20d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 244 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 242 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 241 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 239 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 238 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 393-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   price $69,500 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 227 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 226 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $227 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $528 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$301/yr (+$25/mo · 132.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$227
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $14,724
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,534
• After-tax cash flow: $11,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mother Lode Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0625980
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,429
• Composite: 36.63/100
• National rank: #9251
• State rank: #726 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Diamond Springs

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1239
• US rank: #26264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Diamond Springs, CA
• County: El Dorado County · 144,198 people
• City population: 6,362
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,830
• Household income: $89,938
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -480.50%
• Current HPI: 262.6014
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.48%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $227 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.