441 W County Rd · Sutherland, NE 69165

$119,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1999

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT SPACIOUS 4 BEDROOM HOME THAT IS IN EXCELLENT CONDITION. MOVE IN READY. UPDATED BATH, NEW PAINT, CARPORT WITH CONCRETE FLOOR, LARGE YARD. QUIET STREET.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater; Laminate flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#116 in NE, #4,531 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sutherland Public Schools (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #111 of 245 in NE (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.67%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,773
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $12,552
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69165

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,381/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,005

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-16
   listed $119,900 Active
3. 2017-08-01
   soldstatus $80,000
4. 2017-07-31
   soldstatus $79,900 156-char remark

   Show marketing remark (156 chars)

   GREAT SPACIOUS 4 BEDROOM HOME THAT IS IN EXCELLENT CONDITION. MOVE IN READY. UPDATED BATH, NEW PAINT, CARPORT WITH CONCRETE FLOOR, LARGE YARD. QUIET STREET.

5. 2017-04-10
   listed $79,900 156-char remark

   Show marketing remark (156 chars)

   GREAT SPACIOUS 4 BEDROOM HOME THAT IS IN EXCELLENT CONDITION. MOVE IN READY. UPDATED BATH, NEW PAINT, CARPORT WITH CONCRETE FLOOR, LARGE YARD. QUIET STREET.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,381 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$693/yr (+$58/mo · 50.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,381
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$163
• After-tax cash flow: $2,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sutherland Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100024
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,306
• Composite: 48.13/100
• National rank: #4743
• State rank: #111 of 245 in NE

Livability — Sutherland

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #4531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sutherland, NE
• Population (ZIP): 1,894

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,750 people
• By 2030: 34,004 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 32,310 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 30,918 · -11.0%
• By 2075: 29,245 · -15.8%
• By 2100: 29,116 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.2) · D 21.8% · R 77.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -35.5pp · 2024: -55.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.2 2020: R+54.6 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+40.6 2008: R+35.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.96%
• Current HPI: 197.7812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+50.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — LCBR
• 2026-05-16 Listed $119,900 LCBR
• 2017-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-31 Sold (MLS) $79,900 LCBR
• 2017-04-10 Listed $79,900 LCBR

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,381 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.