402 71st St · Holmes Beach, FL 34217

$1,395,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,183 sqft · Other public records · 381 Days on market

Built 1965 7,832 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale. 3 Blocks to the Gulf of Mexico! 1960's retro architecture compliments the newly remodeled European style kitchen and master bath. Floor treatments of bamboo in the main living area, river rocks in the master bath, and classic terrazzo throughout the rest of the home provides visual texture that enhances the original architectural details. Step out of your master bath to enjoy an outdoor shower in the privacy of your lush, tropical side yard. With an open floor plan, cathedral ceilings, an eat-in kitchen, and split bedrooms, only a few finishing touches are needed to complete the space and make it your own!

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Large corner lot
• Completely remodeled

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• LUSH NATIVE LANDSCAPING
• WIDE COVERED PORCHES
• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $1.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.20M (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 1.7% in Holmes Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#522 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Maria Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 190 students, 36% FRL); Martha B. King Middle School (math 48% / reading 39%, grade D, #329 of 571 statewide, top 58%, 848 students, 63% FRL); Manatee High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,983 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 328 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $300k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $315k; list at $1.40M implies a 343% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,200,000 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-197,944
• Equity at exit: $207,999

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-136,703
• Equity at exit: $120,614

Cash invested: $390,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34217

• Active inventory: 328
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,316
• Tax from tax record: −$712 /mo · $8,549/yr
• Insurance: −$581
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,438

Max offer price $1,395,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,234	-5% $839	+0% $444	+5% $49	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-504	-5% $-30	+0% $444	+5% $918	+10% $1,392
Rate	-1.0pp $1,147	-0.5pp $799	base $444	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $348,750
• Closing costs: $41,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 Concord Ln Holmes Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	1625	$12,000	$7.38	25d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-04
   price $1,395,000
3. 2025-07-18
   price $1,495,000
4. 2025-05-21
   price $1,595,000
5. 2025-03-21
   listed $1,695,000 Active
6. 2012-02-23
   soldstatus $315,000
7. 2012-02-17
   soldstatus $315,000 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Short Sale. 3 Blocks to the Gulf of Mexico! 1960's retro architecture compliments the newly remodeled European style kitchen and master bath. Floor treatments of bamboo in the main living area, river rocks in the master bath, and classic terrazzo throughout the rest of the home provides visual texture that enhances the original architectural details. Step out of your master bath to enjoy an outdoor shower in the privacy of your lush, tropical side yard. With an open floor plan, cathedral ceilings, an eat-in kitchen, and split bedrooms, only a few finishing touches are needed to complete the space and make it your own!

8. 2011-01-08
   listed $365,000 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Short Sale. 3 Blocks to the Gulf of Mexico! 1960's retro architecture compliments the newly remodeled European style kitchen and master bath. Floor treatments of bamboo in the main living area, river rocks in the master bath, and classic terrazzo throughout the rest of the home provides visual texture that enhances the original architectural details. Step out of your master bath to enjoy an outdoor shower in the privacy of your lush, tropical side yard. With an open floor plan, cathedral ceilings, an eat-in kitchen, and split bedrooms, only a few finishing touches are needed to complete the space and make it your own!

9. 2010-06-27
   historical
10. 2010-06-16
    listed $524,000
11. 2006-12-10
    listed $525,000
12. 2004-08-01
    historical
13. 2004-03-30
    listed $475,000
14. 1992-12-07
    soldstatus $130,000
15. 1983-07-01
    soldstatus $82,000
16. 1980-11-01
    soldstatus $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,549 · $712/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,578 · $965/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,030/yr (+$252/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,142
• − Property taxes: −$8,549
• − Insurance: −$12,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − Depreciation: −$40,582
• Taxable loss: −$18,406
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,417
• After-tax cash flow: $9,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holmes Beach

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #522
• US rank: #9627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holmes Beach, FL
• City population: 3,774
• Population (ZIP): 3,774

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.53%
• Current HPI: 377.6715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1895.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $1,395,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $1,495,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $1,595,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-21 Listed $1,695,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-17 Sold (MLS) $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-08 Listed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-16 Listed $524,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-10 Listed $525,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-30 Listed $475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1983-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1980-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,549 · -39.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.