13405 Cedar Ct E · Prairie Ridge, WA 98391

$199,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1974 0.28 ac lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large corner lot in Prairie Ridge with excellent long-term potential. This approximately 12,070 sq ft lot offers a flat, accessible setting with public water and room to reimagine the property. Existing manufactured home is in poor condition and will likely require removal/replacement. Septic replacement needed; buyer to verify all septic, permitting, replacement-home, and development feasibility. The lot’s size, corner position, and easy contractor access make this a compelling opportunity for a cash buyer, investor, builder, or buyer looking to place a new manufactured home. Pre-listing appraisal completed at $210,000. Back on market due to buyer non-performance; no known change in

Key facts

• Moments from costco
• Corner lot
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• QUICK ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 410
• MOMENTS FROM COSTCO
• WIDE SELECTION OF RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $852 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.3% in Prairie Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#401 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Sumner School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #18 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Ridge Elementary (514 students, 44% FRL); Bonney Lake High School (1,636 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 736 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $200k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $181,954 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.26%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $400,896
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22110 Cedarview Dr E	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	0mo	$401,000	$348	92
22006 134th St E	0.05mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	7mo	$175,000	$152	85
12818 Prairie Ridge Dr E	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	3mo	$420,000	$354	75
13125 Ridge Cir E	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	4mo	$205,000	$194	68
13501 Ridgewood Dr E	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,238 (+8%)	5mo	$354,950	$287	68
13010 222nd Ave E	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,064 (-8%)	2mo	$375,000	$352	65
13013 210th Avenue Ct E	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	4mo	$439,950	$370	65
21221 129th Street Ct E	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,239 (+8%)	4mo	$425,000	$343	60
12319 223rd Ave E	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	8mo	$385,000	$324	56
22014 126th St E	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-9%)	6mo	$247,000	$235	51
21204 128th Street Ct E	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	3mo	$454,950	$351	51
21717 146th St E	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,035 (-10%)	5mo	$405,000	$391	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $23,251
• Equity at exit: $29,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $95,917
• Equity at exit: $17,288

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98391

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 736
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,848 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,999/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $852

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $199,950

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,950 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,950 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,950 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,950 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $199,950 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
8. 2026-03-20
   status Active
9. 2026-01-23
   status Active
10. 2025-12-08
    status Pending
11. 2025-11-21
    listed $210,000 Active
12. 1996-01-31
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$2,999
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,734
• − Management: −$2,734
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable income: $7,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,799
• After-tax cash flow: $8,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner School District
• NCES district ID: 5308610
• Math proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $76,138
• Composite: 61.86/100
• National rank: #1497
• State rank: #18 of 291 in WA

Livability — Prairie Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #16033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prairie Ridge, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 59,240
• Household income: $135,037
• Rent vs Own: 14.3% rent · 85.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -565.91%
• Current HPI: 294.2062
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+204.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $210,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $381 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.