154 El Bosque St #154 · San Jose, CA 95134

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $294k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in San Jose, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,344 square feet of living space. The interior features a combined kitchen and family room area, complemented by a separate dining area. Central heating and central air conditioning provide year-round comfort. Laundry needs are met with an included washer and dryer. This property is part of the Santa Clara Unified elementary school district.

Key facts

• Central heating
• Separate dining area
• Built 1976

Tags

• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• CENTRAL HEATING
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• INCLUDED WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Local property tax (LPT) applies
• HOA & community: Community pool; Clubhouse; Indoor half basketball court; Barbecue area; Leased land within a family park (board approval required)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with space for 3 vehicles; Assigned space number 154; Space rent applicable
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meters; Individual gas meters; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (park model); Living area approximately 1,344
• Construction: Metal roofing
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Leased land (park home site)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen integrated with family room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating; Central forced air cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Dining area; Washer and dryer included
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Clara Unified (urban): math 49% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #75 of 517 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 19 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,565 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.60%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,336
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Los Encinos St #304	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$390,000	$271	81
626 Hermitage St #626	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	5mo	$250,000	$186	76
673 Hermitage Pl #673	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-4%)	3mo	$230,000	$177	76
462 Los Encinos St #462	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	14mo	$290,000	$201	69
450 Los Encinos St #450	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-1%)	21mo	$360,000	$272	69
316 Los Encinos St #316	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$315,000	$219	68
708 Spindrift Dr #708	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	4mo	$269,000	$179	67
270 El Bosque Dr #270	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+14%)	10mo	$410,000	$269	66
777 Spindrift Pl #777	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$250,000	$174	64
226 El Bosque St #226	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	22mo	$275,000	$191	64
208 El Bosque Dr #208	0.11mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,464 (+9%)	13mo	$399,000	$273	60
606 HERMITAGE St #606	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	21mo	$346,000	$240	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.15% appreciation · 5.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $116,607
• Equity at exit: $42,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $339,511
• Equity at exit: $35,144

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Jose: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+24

Apartment Rent Ordinance covers pre-1979 multifamily.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95134

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,614 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$969
• Net cashflow: $2,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
175 Baypointe Pkwy San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	889	$4,129	$4.64	1d	8	0.11mi
3700 Casa Verde St San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$4,851	$4.90	1d	18	0.30mi
3500 Palmilla Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$7,040	$6.54	1d	72	0.51mi
1 Vista Montana San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1184	$5,013	$4.23	1d	7	0.63mi
250 Brandon St San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	936	$5,310	$5.67	1d	40	0.72mi
99 Vista Montana San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1085	$4,713	$4.34	1d	20	0.73mi
32 Torregata Loop San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1130	$3,800	$3.36	14d	1	0.78mi
4516 Carlyle Ct #582 Santa Clara, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$6,060	$4.51	14d	1	0.80mi
3401 Iron Point Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$5,139	$5.65	1d	23	0.84mi
590 Mill Creek Ln Unit 1973 Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$4,150	$4.37	43d	1	0.87mi
4500 Carlyle Ct Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$4,963	$4.86	1d	10	0.87mi
310 Crescent Village Cir San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	980	$5,345	$5.45	1d	69	0.89mi
1529 Coyote Creek Way Unit 1529 Milpitas, CA	3.0	2.5	1464	$4,500	$3.07	1d	1	0.90mi
1600 Nantucket Cir Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$4,300	$4.82	3d	8	0.90mi
501 Murphy Ranch Rd Milpitas, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1133	$4,782	$4.22	1d	17	0.91mi
1570 Vista Club Cir #514 Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.0	1012	$4,180	$4.13	2d	1	0.92mi
1625 Nantucket Cir #515 Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.0	1051	$4,050	$3.85	12d	1	0.92mi
600 Park View Dr Unit 1977 Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$4,120	$4.34	3d	1	0.93mi
1405 Coyote Creek Way Milpitas, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$4,700	$3.43	43d	1	0.94mi
1745 Nantucket Cir #577 Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.0	975	$3,940	$4.04	3d	1	0.94mi
1512 Vista Club Cir #432 Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.0	1012	$4,120	$4.07	20d	1	0.98mi
502 Mansion Park Dr Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,369	$5.60	1d	13	1.00mi
4343 Renaissance Dr San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$4,305	$5.06	1d	12	1.01mi
430 Oak Grove Dr #446 Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.0	961	$4,350	$4.53	3d	1	1.06mi
4028 Fitzpatrick Way Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.5	1437	$4,100	$2.85	14d	1	1.11mi
2230 Calle Del Mundo Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$4,919	$6.14	2d	9	1.11mi
4424 Headen Way Santa Clara, CA	3.0	2.5	1716	$5,400	$3.15	23d	1	1.13mi
1650 Hope Dr Santa Clara, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$4,695	$4.61	1d	10	1.17mi
3901 Lick Mill Blvd #1576 Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$3,720	$3.63	1d	2	1.19mi
5150 Calle del Sol Santa Clara, CA	3.0	1.0–3.0	1357	$13,431	$9.90	2d	89	1.21mi
4142 Tobin Cir Santa Clara, CA	3.0	3.5	1657	$5,400	$3.26	4d	1	1.25mi
373 River Oaks Cir San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	937	$4,147	$4.42	1d	3	1.26mi
415 Camille Cir San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1561	$4,009	$2.57	12d	1	1.30mi
2333 Calle del Mundo Santa Clara, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$6,214	$6.27	1d	15	1.31mi
1933 Silva Pl Santa Clara, CA	3.0	2.5	1726	$4,695	$2.72	12d	1	1.33mi
700 Agnew Rd #1994 Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$4,200	$4.16	3d	2	1.36mi
730 Agnew Rd Santa Clara, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	967	$4,529	$4.68	1d	21	1.37mi
345 Village Center Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$4,541	$5.17	1d	19	1.38mi
440 Navaro Pl San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1254	$3,924	$3.13	23d	1	1.41mi
1883 Agnew Rd #1587 Santa Clara, CA	2.0	2.0	1070	$3,720	$3.48	20d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $229,000 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Located in San Jose, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,344 square feet of living space. The interior features a combined kitchen and family room area, complemented by a separate dining area. Central heating and central air conditioning provide year-round comfort. Laundry needs are met with an included washer and dryer. This property is part of the Santa Clara Unified elementary school district.

16. 2026-05-21
    listed $229,000 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Located in San Jose, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,344 square feet of living space. The interior features a combined kitchen and family room area, complemented by a separate dining area. Central heating and central air conditioning provide year-round comfort. Laundry needs are met with an included washer and dryer. This property is part of the Santa Clara Unified elementary school district.

17. 2026-05-21
    listed $229,000 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Located in San Jose, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,344 square feet of living space. The interior features a combined kitchen and family room area, complemented by a separate dining area. Central heating and central air conditioning provide year-round comfort. Laundry needs are met with an included washer and dryer. This property is part of the Santa Clara Unified elementary school district.

18. 2026-05-21
    listed $229,000 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Located in San Jose, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,344 square feet of living space. The interior features a combined kitchen and family room area, complemented by a separate dining area. Central heating and central air conditioning provide year-round comfort. Laundry needs are met with an included washer and dryer. This property is part of the Santa Clara Unified elementary school district.

19. 2018-03-16
    soldstatus $169,900 Sold
20. 2018-02-22
    status Pending (Do Not Show)
21. 2018-01-30
    historical Contingent
22. 2018-01-21
    listed $159,000 Active
23. 2001-04-10
    historical
24. 2001-01-29
    soldstatus $89,900
25. 2001-01-11
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,430
• − Management: −$4,430
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $22,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,386
• After-tax cash flow: $19,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Clara Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635430
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $97,320
• Composite: 53.46/100
• National rank: #1459
• State rank: #75 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jose

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #2559

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jose, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 954,479
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 30,471
• Household income: $203,649
• Rent vs Own: 86.2% rent · 13.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 921.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 63% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 65% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Other Indo-European 28% Other Asian/Pacific 14% Chinese 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.15%
• Current HPI: 276.0008
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.94%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+154.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $229,000 MLSListings
• 2026-05-21 Listed $229,000 MLSListings
• 2026-05-21 Listed $229,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-21 Listed $229,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-03-16 Sold (MLS) $169,900 MLSListings
• 2018-02-22 Pending — MLSListings
• 2018-01-30 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2018-01-21 Listed $159,000 MLSListings
• 2001-04-10 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2001-01-29 Sold (MLS) $89,900 MLSListings
• 2001-01-11 Listed $89,900 MLSListings