5420 Water View Dr · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2004 5,009 sqft lot Est $162k · 17% under $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated and affordable 3 bedroom 2 bath with lake view and lake access!!! Open Concept!! Light and Bright!! Split Bedrooms!! All bedrooms have walk-in closets!!! Community pool, community playground, community lake access for fishing, and a community boat ramp!!!! Roof replaced 2019. HVAC replaced Fall 2018. Location is convenient to Weatherford and Granbury. This is a must see!!

Key facts

• Large living area
• Open concept
• Roomy kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• ROOMY KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN CABINETS
• NEW DISHWASHER
• MICROWAVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Deed restrictions; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Arrowhead Shores Owners Assoc); Annual association fee $50; Association fee includes full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2 carport spaces (covered)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic system; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story; Not attached to another property; Year built 2004
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition and other roof types
• Exterior features: Storage; Interior lot; Chain link and wood fencing; Easements for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with built-in cabinets and pantry; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, dual sinks, and walk-in closet; Other bedrooms feature split-bedroom layout and walk-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; 7 total rooms; One living area; One dining area; One level (single story)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.53%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,192
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5505 Highview	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,488 (0%)	21mo	$160,000	$108	76
5528 Lake View Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-12%)	2mo	$154,900	$118	69
5714 Arkansas Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+5%)	11mo	$125,000	$80	60
5821 Arrowhead Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-2%)	10mo	$170,000	$117	59
5904 Flint Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-1%)	9mo	$205,000	$139	54
5730 Arrowhead Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+5%)	18mo	$164,500	$105	53
5823 Arrowhead Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,278 (-14%)	22mo	$139,500	$109	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,903
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $11,918
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $964/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,158

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	44d	1	0.06mi
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	1d	1	1.02mi
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	1d	1	1.30mi
4214 W Virginia Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,595	$1.50	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $964 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,506/yr (+$126/mo · 156.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$964
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,891
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$454
• After-tax cash flow: $3,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+321.9% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $133,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2020-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-03-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-03-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-02-12 Price Changed $87,500 NTREIS
• 2019-12-06 Listed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2018-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-02-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-02-22 Listed $46,900 NTREIS
• 2018-02-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-01-18 Price Changed $46,900 NTREIS
• 2017-12-07 Price Changed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2017-10-27 Listed $52,900 NTREIS
• 2017-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-13 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-03-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-03-03 Listed $32,000 NTREIS
• 2002-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $964 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.