6307 Earth Dr · Doolittle, TX 78542

$92,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2013 0.31 ac lot $61/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 23% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House 40% done. Conveniently located out of city limits. 5 minutes from major freeway. Make this house your home or a perfect investment opportunity. House sitting on over .25 acre lot.

Key facts

• Over .25 acre lot
• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 2013

Tags

• OVER .25 ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.4% in Doolittle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,460 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1003 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.06%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,962
• List price: $92,000
• Delta: -58.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6510 N La Villita St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,437 (-5%)	3mo	$239,999	$167	84
6416 La Villita St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+1%)	13mo	$229,900	$151	79
6510 N La Villita St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-1%)	23mo	$239,650	$161	77
6514 N La Villita St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+11%)	3mo	$269,987	$161	74
6404 N La Villita St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+6%)	23mo	$225,000	$141	68
6301 N La Villita St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+8%)	22mo	$235,000	$144	64
6001 Reymundo St	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,601 (+6%)	11mo	$237,500	$148	55
3413 Erica Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,465 (-3%)	16mo	$246,000	$168	46
3321 Erica Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-5%)	24mo	$250,000	$175	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $6,831
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $22,830
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78542

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1003
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,191/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $996

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $461	-5% $435	+0% $409	+5% $383	+10% $357
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $349	+0% $409	+5% $469	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $433	base $409	+0.5pp $385	+1.0pp $361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2705 Tassajara St Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.5	2010	$2,100	$1.04	19d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,000 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $92,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $92,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $92,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-01-19
    listed $115,000 Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    House 40% done. Conveniently located out of city limits. 5 minutes from major freeway. Make this house your home or a perfect investment opportunity. House sitting on over .25 acre lot.

14. 2026-01-11
    historical
15. 2025-02-01
    price $125,000
16. 2024-08-15
    price $135,000
17. 2024-07-11
    listed $149,895 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,191 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,191 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$3,191
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,453
• − Management: −$1,453
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $3,778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$907
• After-tax cash flow: $4,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,985
• Composite: 22.42/100
• National rank: #8114
• State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

Livability — Doolittle

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1460
• US rank: #24819

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Doolittle, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 89,401
• Household income: $55,243
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1240.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 59% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.17%
• Current HPI: 220.921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.07%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-11 Listed $149,895 HARMLS

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,191 · +34.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.