51 Winchester Pl · Centerville, OH 45458

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Condo public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1969 $292/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover an exceptional opportunity in Centerville, where comfort meets convenience in a delightful condominium setting. This inviting two-story residence offers a seamless blend of modern living and accessibility. The home features two generously sized bedrooms and two walk in closets. The kitchen is equipped with a dishwasher, microwave, range, refrigerator and washer & dryer. A charming patio provides a private oasis for relaxation. The Winchester Place neighborhood provides a desirable location and walk to Uptown Centerville. Move in at closing!

Key facts

• Two story residence
• Private oasis
• Walk in closets

Tags

• TWO STORY RESIDENCE
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• CHARMING PATIO
• PRIVATE OASIS
• WINCHESTER PLACE NEIGHBORHOOD
• WALK TO UPTOWN CENTERVILLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Apple Management; Monthly association fee of $292; Association fee includes insurance, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water: included in association fee; Sewer and power details not specified
• Home design: Two-story property; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Patio; Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (approx. 11 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second level (approx. 14 x 10 and 12 x 13)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-795/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (8.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in OH, #604 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Centerville City (suburban): math 62% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #163 of 656 in OH (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Primary Village South (712 students, 19% FRL); Magsig Middle School (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B, #271 of 654 statewide, top 43%, 577 students, 23% FRL); Centerville High School (math 60% / reading 84%, grade B+, #89 of 781 statewide, top 12%, 2,755 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $133,295 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-29,003
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-35,862
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45458

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,233/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$292
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,644

Max offer price $133,295

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-25	+0% $-66	+5% $-107	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-190	-5% $-128	+0% $-66	+5% $-5	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-29	base $-66	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 W Franklin St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1030	$1,365	$1.33	16d	9	0.05mi
117 Maple Ave Washington Township, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,095	$1.37	4d	6	0.36mi
102 Crystal Point Dr Dayton, OH	2.0–3.0	2.0	1154	$1,430	$1.24	25d	1	0.57mi
11 Bradstreet Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,099	$1.16	16d	4	0.61mi
7745 Essington Cir Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	913	$1,250	$1.37	4d	1	0.63mi
148 Mallard Glen Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	987	$1,400	$1.42	4d	1	0.65mi
402 Windsor Park Dr #408 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	25d	1	0.66mi
506 Stonington Cir Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,525	$1.65	4d	9	0.70mi
551 Shelbourne Ln Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$1,935	$1.76	4d	13	0.73mi
30 Poinciana Dr Unit 1 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	21d	1	0.74mi
7742 Brams Hill Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	4d	1	0.74mi
30 Poinciana Dr #6 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	23d	1	0.75mi
30 Poinciana Dr #6 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	25d	1	0.75mi
865 Revere Village Ct Dayton, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1062	$1,590	$1.50	4d	8	0.78mi
765 Clareridge Ln Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1208	$1,400	$1.16	25d	1	0.83mi
110 W Spring Valley Pike Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,800	$1.63	25d	1	0.96mi
7850 Betsy Ross Cir Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,450	$1.42	4d	1	1.19mi
7815 Betsy Ross Cir Unit 7821 Betsy Ross Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1190	$1,395	$1.17	25d	1	1.23mi
853 Peach Hill Dr Washington Township, OH	2.0	1.5	950	$1,650	$1.74	25d	1	1.25mi
200 Jamestown Cir Unit 201B Washington Township, OH	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $292 · $3,504/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $145,000 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    status Active
16. 2026-05-01
    historical ActiveUnderContract
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $145,000 Active
18. 2026-03-31
    historical
19. 2026-03-11
    price $159,000
20. 2026-01-05
    price $162,000
21. 2025-10-13
    listed $162,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,248 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$14/yr (+$1/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,233
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − HOA: −$3,504
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$738
• After-tax cash flow: $-57/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centerville City
• NCES district ID: 3904373
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,985
• Composite: 58.44/100
• National rank: #1005
• State rank: #163 of 656 in OH

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #604

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 38,712
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 38,712
• Household income: $110,150
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 818.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.98%
• Current HPI: 193.0497
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $145,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $159,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $162,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $162,500 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,233 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.