10405 Chillicothe Rd · Kirtland, OH 44094

$198,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1955 1.33 ac lot $139/sqft · 38% below area Est $323k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AS IS SALE

Key facts

• 1.33 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1955

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($610/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Kirtland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in OH, #1,647 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kirtland Local (suburban): math 73% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #57 of 656 in OH (top 9%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 448 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $174,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.10%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,736
• List price: $198,500
• Delta: -38.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8382 Euclid Chardon Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+7%)	5mo	$245,000	$160	61
10321 Chillicothe Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (-5%)	23mo	$295,000	$217	59
8137 Beechwood Dr	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,412 (-1%)	21mo	$335,000	$237	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,095
• Equity at exit: $29,597

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,747
• Equity at exit: $17,163

Cash invested: $55,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44094

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,773 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,041
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,716/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,709

Max offer price $198,500

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $107	+0% $51	+5% $-5	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-19	+0% $51	+5% $121	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $101	base $51	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,625
• Closing costs: $5,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,500 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,500 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,500 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,500 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,500 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,500 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,500 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,500 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,500 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,500 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $198,500 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $198,500 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,500 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,500 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,500 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    price $198,500 10-char remark

    Show marketing remark (10 chars)

    AS IS SALE

17. 2026-02-17
    listed $200,000 Active 10-char remark

    Show marketing remark (10 chars)

    AS IS SALE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,716 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,906 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 7.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,716
• − Insurance: −$992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,702
• − Management: −$1,702
• − Depreciation: −$5,775
• Taxable loss: −$2,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $1,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kirtland Local
• NCES district ID: 3904787
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,416
• Composite: 67.93/100
• National rank: #360
• State rank: #57 of 656 in OH

Livability — Kirtland

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1647

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirtland, OH
• County: Lake County · 204,927 people
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 36,873
• Household income: $78,772
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1381.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,022 people
• By 2030: 228,151 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 221,018 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 212,754 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 200,309 · -12.9%
• By 2100: 183,315 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.7 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.28%
• Current HPI: 179.81
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $198,500 MLSNOW
• 2026-02-17 Listed $200,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,716 · -18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.