430 E Parnell St · Denison, TX 75021

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 996 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1940 7,492 sqft lot $180/sqft · 16% below area Est $213k · 16% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home for sale in a quiet neighborhood featuring a large, fenced backyard and convenient carport. This versatile floor plan could easily be converted into a three-bedroom home, with the front room serving as a bedroom, den, or home office to fit your needs. Perfect as a starter home or investment property, this home offers brand new paint and flooring throughout, giving it a fresh, move-in-ready feel. Enjoy outdoor space for pets, play, or entertaining, all in a peaceful setting. Affordable, flexible, and freshly updated. A great opportunity you don’t want to miss!

Key facts

• Carport
• Outdoor space
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• CARPORT
• VERSATILE FLOOR PLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,214 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,400
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -16.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
423 E Washington St	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,024 (+3%)	15mo	$225,000	$220	79
724 N Houston Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	973 (-2%)	15mo	$200,000	$206	64
425 E Elm St	0.09mi	3/2.0	924 (-7%)	22mo	$163,000	$176	61
715 E Maple Row	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,030 (+3%)	17mo	$140,000	$136	59
205 Martin Luther King St	0.48mi	3/1.0	979 (-2%)	22mo	$195,000	$199	56
727 E Maple Row	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	948 (-5%)	19mo	$74,000	$78	49
519 E Gandy St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+14%)	1mo	$135,000	$119	46
406 Martin Luther King St	0.66mi	3/1.0	965 (-3%)	23mo	$200,000	$207	45
40 Vaughn Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,123 (+13%)	6mo	$149,500	$133	40
709 E Gandy St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-11%)	10mo	$145,000	$164	39
1008 N Burnett Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	876 (-12%)	15mo	$130,450	$149	34
416 W Johnson St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,074 (+8%)	20mo	$199,996	$186	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-35,924
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-40,308
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75021

• Home prices YoY: -17.3%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,481/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $159,927

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 E Bond St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$950	$1.15	43d	1	0.48mi
632 E Sears St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$1,250	$1.60	43d	1	0.52mi
617 W Gandy St Unit 3 Denison, TX	2.0	2.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	43d	1	1.04mi
520 E Day St Denison, TX	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,225	$1.14	20d	1	1.19mi
626 W Crawford St Unit 101 Denison, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$950	$1.00	20d	1	1.23mi
410 S Mirick Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	43d	1	1.24mi
610 W Owing St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,395	$1.26	43d	1	1.25mi
820 W Crawford St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	996	$1,250	$1.26	20d	1	1.36mi
1016 W Gandy St #4 Denison, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,100	$1.10	43d	1	1.36mi
404 W Day St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	20d	1	1.37mi
412 W Day St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	20d	1	1.38mi
224 W Hull St Unit A Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	743	$1,250	$1.68	43d	1	1.44mi
505 E Heron St Denison, TX	2.0	1.0	1096	$1,250	$1.14	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 101 DOM
18. 2026-03-28
    price $179,000 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming home for sale in a quiet neighborhood featuring a large, fenced backyard and convenient carport. This versatile floor plan could easily be converted into a three-bedroom home, with the front room serving as a bedroom, den, or home office to fit your needs. Perfect as a starter home or investment property, this home offers brand new paint and flooring throughout, giving it a fresh, move-in-ready feel. Enjoy outdoor space for pets, play, or entertaining, all in a peaceful setting. Affordable, flexible, and freshly updated. A great opportunity you don’t want to miss!

19. 2026-02-18
    listed $187,500 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Charming home for sale in a quiet neighborhood featuring a large, fenced backyard and convenient carport. This versatile floor plan could easily be converted into a three-bedroom home, with the front room serving as a bedroom, den, or home office to fit your needs. Perfect as a starter home or investment property, this home offers brand new paint and flooring throughout, giving it a fresh, move-in-ready feel. Enjoy outdoor space for pets, play, or entertaining, all in a peaceful setting. Affordable, flexible, and freshly updated. A great opportunity you don’t want to miss!

20. 1987-11-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,481 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,795/yr (+$150/mo · 121.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,481
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$4,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $-219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816710
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,650
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4629
• State rank: #315 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denison

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #5428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denison, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 34,008
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,173
• Household income: $83,067
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 124.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.91%
• Current HPI: 285.7502
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $187,500 NTREIS
• 1987-11-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,481 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.