16426 Eton Brook Ln · Houston, TX 77073

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,435 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2006 4,952 sqft lot Est $199k · 7% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of updated essentials and creative potential in this modest 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home. Situated on a generous lot, this property offers a fully-fenced backyard that serves as an ideal canvas for gardening, entertaining, or creating your dream outdoor oasis. Inside, you will find newly updated flooring throughout the main living areas, providing a fresh and modern feel the moment you walk through the door. The heavy lifting has already been done for you with a high-efficiency HVAC system installed just 3 years ago, ensuring year-round comfort and long-term peace of mind. The interior is a clean slate and ready for your custom paint colors and personal finishing to

Key facts

• 4,952 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Tags

• FULLY-FENCED BACKYARD
• HIGH-EFFICIENCY HVAC SYSTEM
• NEWLY UPDATED FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunn El (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 768 students, 89% FRL); Lewis Middle (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 1,090 students, 94% FRL); Aldine H S (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 2,663 students, 94% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,100 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,465
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 Brighton Fort Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+4%)	6mo	$198,000	$132	78
16355 Royal Fort Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (-3%)	9mo	$209,900	$150	75
16506 Regal Exeter Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (+9%)	6mo	$239,900	$154	72
1223 Spring Apple Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+3%)	11mo	$199,995	$135	70
1403 Heath Cote Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+4%)	8mo	$210,000	$140	69
16515 Regal Exeter	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+14%)	5mo	$232,500	$142	69
16031 Imperial Forest Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+6%)	1mo	$240,000	$157	68
22334 Queenbury Hills Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+0%)	2mo	$199,900	$139	64
15926 Colonial Bridge Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	5mo	$199,000	$130	60
15938 Wisteria Hill St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+6%)	8mo	$210,000	$137	54
15834 Colonial Bridge Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+12%)	0mo	$199,900	$124	52
1007 Lancaster Lake Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+14%)	8mo	$225,000	$138	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,115
• Equity at exit: $47,506

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-23,307
• Equity at exit: $52,378

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77073

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$412 /mo · $4,950/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,876

Max offer price $168,100

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-43	+0% $-95	+5% $-147	+10% $-200
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-164	+0% $-95	+5% $-26	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $-2	-0.5pp $-48	base $-95	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1430 Great Easton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,825	$1.16	0d	1	0.24mi
21717 Inverness Forest Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1158	$1,375	$1.19	45d	1	1.07mi
21717 Inverness Forest Blvd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	985	$1,070	$1.09	9d	1	1.11mi
21717 Inverness Forest Blvd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	1d	1	1.11mi
21717 Inverness Forest Blvd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	985	$1,095	$1.11	0d	1	1.11mi
21723 Inverness Forest Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	985	$1,060	$1.08	26d	1	1.18mi
21407 Palma Grove Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,000	$0.71	14d	1	1.30mi
21631 S Werrington Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1645	$1,900	$1.16	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $184,900
3. 2026-01-12
   listed $195,000 Active
4. 2025-10-06
   historical
5. 2025-07-03
   listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,950 · $412/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,950 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$4,950
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$4,188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $-136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,084
• Household income: $78,592
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 27% Two or more races 24% White 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 215.8688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $210,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,950 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.