6012 Michelle Cir · Callaway, FL 32404

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1996 6,316 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac. Thoughtfully designed with modern finishes and an open, airy layout, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and functionality for everyday living and entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring flows throughout the main living areas, enhancing the seamless feel of the spacious floor plan. The bright and inviting living room opens effortlessly to the kitchen and dining areas, creating an ideal space for gathering with family and friends. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and everyday essentials, this home offers both style and practicality in a desirable location. Whether you'r

Key facts

• Open airy layout
• Desirable location
• Modern finishes

Tags

• MODERN FINISHES
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN AIRY LAYOUT
• BRIGHT INVITING LIVING ROOM
• IDEAL SPACE FOR GATHERING
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Double wide mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot; Paved access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.1% in Callaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.65%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,410
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,118
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $391/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $413	-5% $368	+0% $323	+5% $278	+10% $232
Rent	-10% $197	-5% $260	+0% $323	+5% $386	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $403	-0.5pp $364	base $323	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Raven Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,750	$1.40	21d	1	0.28mi
229 Callaway Chase Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,650	$1.38	14d	1	0.31mi
6121 Harvey St Unit 8 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,050	$0.88	21d	1	0.33mi
6121 Harvey St Apt 16 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,090	$1.09	21d	1	0.33mi
6101 Harvey St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1108	$1,050	$0.95	21d	1	0.34mi
526 Camellia Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,950	$1.42	21d	1	0.49mi
168 N Comet Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	21d	1	0.68mi
5805 Cherry St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,200	$1.17	14d	1	0.71mi
175 N Berthe Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,195	$1.47	14d	1	0.80mi
5101 Willow St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,500	$1.36	14d	1	0.83mi
114 S Kimbrel Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	21d	1	0.84mi
116 Christie Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,550	$1.42	21d	1	0.89mi
129 Seneca Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,495	$1.03	14d	1	0.90mi
208 North Highway 22 A Unit 33 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,350	$1.25	21d	1	0.91mi
4905 Alameda St Unit 1 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	942	$1,295	$1.37	21d	1	0.96mi
7006 Lois St Unit B Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	21d	1	0.96mi
6328 Olokee St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,850	$1.64	14d	1	0.98mi
5117 E 10th St Apt A Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,200	$1.28	14d	1	1.01mi
5117 E 10th St Unit D Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	950	$1,250	$1.32	14d	1	1.02mi
6724 Chipewa St Unit 6724 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	14d	1	1.02mi
322 S Burkett Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	600	$1,519	$2.53	14d	13	1.08mi
149 North Highway 22 A Unit 5 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,140	$1.27	14d	1	1.08mi
906 Kevin Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,795	$1.42	21d	1	1.17mi
5813 Hickory St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	21d	1	1.21mi
263 Nelle Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,690	$1.31	21d	1	1.31mi
4141 E 15th St Panama City, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1082	$1,825	$1.69	14d	9	1.33mi
509 Phillips Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,700	$1.20	14d	1	1.36mi
5115 E 14th St Unit 3 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$1,250	$1.28	21d	1	1.40mi
3914 E 11th St #301 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,000	$1.16	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $160,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
17. 2026-06-01
    listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $391 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$937/yr (+$78/mo · 239.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$391
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$308
• After-tax cash flow: $3,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callaway, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-67.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $170,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $525,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $525,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $391 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.