1826 Chester Way · Bel Air North, MD 21015

$325,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,860 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1991 3,000 sqft lot Est $361k · 10% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath end of group townhome in. the Village of Thomas Run. This location is near local schools and just minutes from downtown Bel Air and all that it has to offer. Park in one of the two assigned parking spots and take the walkway to the front door. Once inside there is a conveniently located powder room right next to the entry. The whole main floor is done in lvp flooring. Walking forward from the entryway brings you into the kitchen with custom cabinetry, laminate counters and all black appliances. A large pass through window looks out from the kitchen to the formal dining area and living rooms. On the other side of the kitchen is the formal dining room and t

Key facts

• $125 HOA
• Built 1991
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee of $125 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: End-of-row townhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Mixed construction materials; Permanent foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on upper level, one on lower level); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pumps for heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and hot water
• Interior features: Fully finished basement; Living area reported by assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-683/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#35 in MD, #1,269 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask is 121% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $325k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,932 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $360,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1810 Wye Mills Ln	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,867 (+0%)	1mo	$365,000	$196	87
1901 Millington Sq	0.18mi	3/3.5	1,870 (+0%)	1mo	$260,000	$139	86
1820 Queen Anne Sq	0.21mi	3/3.0	1,800 (-3%)	1mo	$372,500	$207	82
1831 Still Pond Way	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,760 (-5%)	3mo	$312,000	$177	76
1903 Thomas Run Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (+10%)	0mo	$340,000	$167	74
1721 Beechbank Way	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,821 (-2%)	1mo	$353,000	$194	73
1812 Glendale Ln	0.29mi	3/3.0	1,760 (-5%)	3mo	$345,000	$196	73
1852 Oxford Sq	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,746 (-6%)	4mo	$325,000	$186	69
1836 Bramble Brook Ln	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,746 (-6%)	2mo	$341,500	$196	68
1704 Beechbank Way	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-6%)	1mo	$335,000	$193	68
1723 Beechbank Way	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,960 (+5%)	5mo	$340,000	$173	66
1876 Oxford Sq	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,626 (-13%)	3mo	$363,500	$224	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-52,883
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-36,391
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21015

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,790/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,781

Max offer price $314,948

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $35	+0% $-57	+5% $-149	+10% $-241
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-164	+0% $-57	+5% $50	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $26	base $-57	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2219 Jack Ln Bel Air, MD	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1304	$2,985	$2.29	4d	18	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: parking

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $325,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $325,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   status $325,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-01
   listed $325,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,790 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,166 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: +$376/yr (+$31/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,790
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,601
• − Management: −$2,601
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,504
• After-tax cash flow: $821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air North

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #1269

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air North, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,013
• Household income: $137,281
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.26%
• Current HPI: 251.2512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+217.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $325,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-24 Sold (MLS) $148,000 MRIS
• 2003-05-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-05-01 Listed $146,900 MRIS
• 2002-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-04 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MRIS
• 2001-12-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-11-05 Listed $122,900 MRIS
• 1999-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $109,500 Public Records
• 1991-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $102,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,790 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.