15819 Sundew Prairie Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$240,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,002 sqft · Townhouse public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 2,384 sqft lot Est $336k · 29% under $180/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 15819 Sundew Prairie Drive in Balmoral. Built in 2021 by HistoryMaker Homes, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome offers 2,002 sq ft across two well-planned levels with a 2-car attached garage. The first floor features tile flooring, a spacious family room, breakfast area, and an open kitchen with granite countertops, island with breakfast bar, gas range, walk-in pantry, dishwasher, and disposal. Upstairs, all bedrooms are privately tucked away with a convenient utility room nearby. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and shower, while secondary bedrooms share a tub/shower bath. Energy features include Low-E windows, high-efficiency HVAC, radiant attic barrier, Energy Star a

Key facts

• Area pool
• Tile flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• AREA POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Principle Management HOA; HOA fee $180 monthly; HOA covers common areas, insurance, and structure maintenance; Community pool; Curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Security system owned; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories; Faces east; Full ownership
• Construction: Built in 2021; Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation system; Tennis court(s); Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Oven; Disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Kitchen island; Breakfast nook
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (15 x 13); Bedroom on second floor (10 x 13); Bedroom on second floor (10 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, zoned); Central air conditioning (electric, zoned)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Walk-in pantry; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on second floor; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($108/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $236k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 858 students, 38% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 32% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 684 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,336
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12723 Beatrice Terrace Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,820 (-9%)	8mo	$245,000	$135	77
12619 Taymouth Manor Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,122 (+6%)	13mo	$250,000	$118	75
12738 Beatrice Terrace Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,784 (-11%)	11mo	$249,942	$140	70
15831 Perthshire Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,832 (-8%)	17mo	$250,000	$136	69
12719 Beatrice Terrace Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-13%)	13mo	$249,900	$144	66
11826 Gramina Way	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,979 (-1%)	18mo	$329,588	$167	52
11718 Gramina Way	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,979 (-1%)	20mo	$349,067	$176	48
11738 Gramina Way	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,149 (+7%)	16mo	$360,145	$168	37
11822 Gramina Way	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-12%)	20mo	$328,900	$186	33
11806 Gramina Way	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,770 (-12%)	18mo	$319,140	$180	28
11818 Gramina Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-14%)	22mo	$377,824	$218	26
11802 Gramina Way	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-14%)	20mo	$351,713	$203	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-24,183
• Equity at exit: $58,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-28,003
• Equity at exit: $61,840

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 684
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$527 /mo · $6,318/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,614

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $77	+0% $9	+5% $-59	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-95	+0% $9	+5% $113	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $70	base $9	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,871	$1.09	1d	1	0.21mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	26d	1	0.44mi
12626 Gallowhill Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,295	$1.53	1d	1	0.47mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	5d	1	0.48mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	46d	1	0.48mi
15713 Saxton Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1643	$2,099	$1.28	0d	35	0.55mi
15957 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,200	$1.46	46d	1	0.81mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 15984 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,134	$1.42	12d	1	0.88mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3112 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,145	$1.43	0d	1	0.88mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	46d	1	0.88mi
15863 Kinlough Dr Humble, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1326	$2,518	$1.90	5d	16	0.91mi
12138 Loch Muick Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,411	$1.28	7d	1	0.97mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	4d	1	1.06mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	3d	1	1.14mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,676	$1.00	1d	1	1.15mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	1d	1	1.20mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	26d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $240,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Pending 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Pending 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Pending 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Pending 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Pending 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Pending 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Pending 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $240,000 Pending 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $240,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,318 · $527/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,318 · $527/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$6,318
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,520
• − Management: −$2,520
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,639
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$873
• After-tax cash flow: $981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2021 townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-maintained interior, high-efficiency systems, and a good curb appeal. Painting, landscaping, and interior cleaning would be the highest-ROI updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $240,000 HARMLS