214 Cox Ln · Carrizo Springs, TX 78834

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Built 1930 6.49 ac lot $96/sqft · 15% below area Est $117k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated just outside the city limits, this 6.5-acre property offers space, privacy, and flexibility with the benefit of a lower tax base. Located only minutes from town and approximately 100 yards off Highway 83, the setting provides easy access while still delivering a peaceful, country feel. The property features a 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with just over 1,000 square feet, originally built around 1930. Nearly a century old, the home showcases authentic rustic farmhouse charm, including a brick fireplace, covered front porch, and metal roof. The structure has been vacant for an extended period and is ready for a new owner to decide its future-restore and renovate, or start fresh with a new build. The land itself is a standout, dotted with mature mesquite trees and native South Texas brush. Interior roads wind through the acreage, and there are visible signs of wildlife throughout the property, making it appealing for those who enjoy the outdoors. Utilities are already in place. The existing well and septic systems have not been used in many years, and their current condition is unknown. With multiple potential uses-renovation project, new construction, manufactured home placement, or possible commercial use due to proximity to Highway 83-this property offers versatility and value. Priced affordably with a focus on land, location, and existing infrastructure, this is a rare opportunity to own acreage with endless possibilities in Carrizo Springs.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Metal roof
• Brick fireplace

Tags

• 6.5 ACRE PROPERTY
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• METAL ROOF
• MATURE MESQUITE TREES
• UTILITIES ALREADY IN PLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,342 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Carrizo Springs CISD (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #780 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Dimmit County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Dimmit County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.89%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,665
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -15.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $43,625
• Equity at exit: $65,942

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $118,339
• Equity at exit: $122,920

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78834

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $244/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $735

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $210	+0% $182	+5% $154	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $144	+0% $182	+5% $220	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $207	base $182	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $99,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Price Change 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Price Change 94 DOM
16. 2026-02-26
    listed $125,000 New 1478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1478 chars)

    Situated just outside the city limits, this 6.5-acre property offers space, privacy, and flexibility with the benefit of a lower tax base. Located only minutes from town and approximately 100 yards off Highway 83, the setting provides easy access while still delivering a peaceful, country feel. The property features a 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with just over 1,000 square feet, originally built around 1930. Nearly a century old, the home showcases authentic rustic farmhouse charm, including a brick fireplace, covered front porch, and metal roof. The structure has been vacant for an extended period and is ready for a new owner to decide its future-restore and renovate, or start fresh with a new build. The land itself is a standout, dotted with mature mesquite trees and native South Texas brush. Interior roads wind through the acreage, and there are visible signs of wildlife throughout the property, making it appealing for those who enjoy the outdoors. Utilities are already in place. The existing well and septic systems have not been used in many years, and their current condition is unknown. With multiple potential uses-renovation project, new construction, manufactured home placement, or possible commercial use due to proximity to Highway 83-this property offers versatility and value. Priced affordably with a focus on land, location, and existing infrastructure, this is a rare opportunity to own acreage with endless possibilities in Carrizo Springs.

17. 2012-08-07
    historical
18. 2011-12-19
    listed $650,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $244 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,568/yr (+$131/mo · 642.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$244
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$927
• − Management: −$927
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $571
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$137
• After-tax cash flow: $2,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrizo Springs CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,354
• Composite: 17.03/100
• National rank: #9127
• State rank: #780 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carrizo Springs

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1342
• US rank: #23137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,204

Population outlook (Dimmit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,089 people
• By 2030: 14,217 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 16,685 · +27.5%
• By 2050: 19,361 · +47.9%
• By 2075: 26,356 · +101.4%
• By 2100: 31,128 · +137.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 59% White 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Dimmit

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 48.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.4pp toward R · 2008: 50.7pp · 2024: 3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.3 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+37.2 2012: D+47.3 2008: D+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Current HPI: 127.0655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-80.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $125,000 LERA
• 2012-08-07 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2011-12-19 Listed $650,000 LERA

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $244 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.