1012/1014 E Gulf Dr · Sanibel, FL 33957

$899,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Townhouse · 468 Days on market

Built 1970 0.26 ac lot Est $1009k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NO DAMAGE FROM MILTON OR HELENE. Discover Turtle Tracks East & West, a charming cottage-style duplex offering an updated, comfortable living space with two bedroom sand one bathroom on each side. Nestled in a serene setting, the property is short walking distance to the beach, and provides indoor and outdoor living spaces, an outdoor shower and separate laundry rooms for each side. Step inside to find beautifully restored terrazzo flooring that complements the spacious living rooms each flowing seamlessly into the open kitchens and dining areas. One side has a cozy outdoor deck and the other has a screened in lanai. With enticing island-style décor, updated kitchens, and modern

Key facts

• Modern baths
• Outdoor shower
• Updated kitchens

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHENS
• MODERN BATHS
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOMS
• RESTORED TERRAZZO FLOORING
• COZY OUTDOOR DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee noted

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security: Smoke detectors; High-impact doors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry on level 1; South-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Lanai; Patio; Porch (screened); Outdoor gas grill; Sprinkler/irrigation system (municipal source); Security/high-impact doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop/Range; Microwave; Refrigerator with icemaker; Freezer; Disposal; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: Florida room (additional living space); Screened porch (additional living space)
• Flooring: Terrazzo
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Furnished; Sliding windows with impact glass; Window coverings and treatments; Shower-only bathroom with separate shower; Terrazzo flooring
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $899k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($39k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $899k).
• Recommended offer: $791k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 468 days — a 12% lower offer ($791k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $791,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 468 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.33%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,009,140
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1401 Middle Gulf Dr Unit L402	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (+5%)	7mo	$1,055,000	$695	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $59,139
• Equity at exit: $134,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $316,479
• Equity at exit: $77,729

Cash invested: $251,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,124 /mo · $13,485/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,618
• Net cashflow: $3,209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,404

Max offer price $899,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,830	-5% $3,519	+0% $3,209	+5% $2,898	+10% $2,587
Rent	-10% $2,224	-5% $2,716	+0% $3,209	+5% $3,701	+10% $4,194
Rate	-1.0pp $3,661	-0.5pp $3,437	base $3,209	+0.5pp $2,976	+1.0pp $2,739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,750
• Closing costs: $26,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1679 Serenity Ln Unit 1323695P Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$7,115	$4.32	17d	1	1.24mi
424 Lagoon Dr Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$18,200	$10.68	24d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $899,000 Active 468 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $899,000 Active 467 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $899,000 Active 466 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $899,000 Active 464 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $899,000 Active 460 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $899,000 Active 458 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $899,000 Active 453 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $899,000 Active 452 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $899,000 Active 451 DOM
10. 2025-03-06
    listed $899,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $149,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,358
• − Property taxes: −$13,485
• − Insurance: −$9,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,967
• − Management: −$11,967
• − Depreciation: −$26,153
• Taxable income: $26,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,251
• After-tax cash flow: $32,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-03-06 Listed $899,000 FORTMLS