15406 State Highway 198 · Fredericksburg, PA 16335

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 1933 0.44 ac lot $64/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in desirable Little’s Corners in Hayfield Township, this solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity and bring their vision to life. Conveniently situated directly across from the Hayfield Volunteer Fire Department and just minutes from the I-79 interchange and Saegertown Area School District, the location combines rural charm with excellent accessibility. This estate property is being sold as a short sale and will require updates and repairs, but the potential is undeniable. Featuring a durable metal roof and a functional layout, this home could truly shine with the right touch and creative vision. Whether you’re an investo

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Hayfield township
• Functional layout

Tags

• HAYFIELD TOWNSHIP
• MINUTES FROM I-79 INTERCHANGE
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FIXER-UPPER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax listed (amount provided)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Total of 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Cleared and sloped lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Full basement with exterior entry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#790 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Penncrest SD (rural): math 31% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #348 of 539 in PA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.73%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,153
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -69.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18324 State Hwy 98	0.72mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (+7%)	0mo	$67,500	$50	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $10,478
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $39,288
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16335

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $865/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $79,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $89,900 Active 846-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $865 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,063 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 23.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$865
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,084
• − Management: −$1,084
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,319
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$797
• After-tax cash flow: $3,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penncrest SD
• NCES district ID: 4218740
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,927
• Composite: 34.64/100
• National rank: #5146
• State rank: #348 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #790
• US rank: #7972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Crawford County · 27,175 people
• Metro: Meadville, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,175
• Household income: $57,591
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 953.0

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.80%
• Current HPI: 272.4095
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Meadville, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $79,900 GEBOR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $89,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $865 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.