704 Prairie Ln SW · Alexandria, MN 56308

$204,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1960 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in Ready! Great corner lot location in the city. Just completed renovations including new kitchen cabinets and countertop, kitchen sink / faucet, stainless steel appliances, stove, microwave and dishwasher. Also fresh paint, new light fixtures, new LVP flooring, carpeting, Exterior has new vinyl siding, gutters, new windows, deck, exterior doors, and much more. ..

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway/parking; No carport spaces
• Utilities: City water (in street); City sewer, connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One-and-a-half story layout; Entry level on main floor
• Construction: Metal roof; Crawl space and concrete basement; Foundation described as other; Foundation dimensions approximately 22 x 26
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Deck and front porch; Corner lot; Storage shed; City street frontage with paved roads; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms — two on the upper level and one on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen window; Water softener (owned); Main floor full bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.5% in Alexandria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#105 in MN, #2,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Alexandria Public School District (town): math 55% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #64 of 301 in MN (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #180 of 857 statewide, top 23%, 466 students, 38% FRL); Discovery Middle School (math 51% / reading 57%, grade B-, #48 of 258 statewide, top 19%, 913 students, 34% FRL); Alexandria Area High School (math 39% / reading 62%, grade D+, #131 of 471 statewide, top 28%, 1,302 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 285 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (88 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $204k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $139,863 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-40,532
• Equity at exit: $30,417

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-45,184
• Equity at exit: $17,638

Cash invested: $57,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56308

• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $792/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,545

Max offer price $183,529

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-58	+0% $-116	+5% $-174	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-171	+0% $-116	+5% $-61	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-64	base $-116	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,000
• Closing costs: $6,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-27
   price $204,000
4. 2026-04-06
   listed $209,000 Active
5. 2025-05-14
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,538 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$746/yr (+$62/mo · 94.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,427
• − Property taxes: −$792
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$5,935
• Taxable loss: −$5,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,218
• After-tax cash flow: $-172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alexandria Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703060
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $52,476
• Composite: 48.0/100
• National rank: #2197
• State rank: #64 of 301 in MN

Livability — Alexandria

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #2409

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Douglas County · 27,008 people
• City population: 27,008
• Metro: Alexandria, MN
• Population (ZIP): 27,008
• Household income: $78,177
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,913 people
• By 2030: 39,636 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 40,564 · +4.2%
• By 2050: 40,819 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 40,824 · +4.9%
• By 2100: 38,379 · -1.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 22% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.1) · D 31.7% · R 66.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -35.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.1 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+35.8 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.15%
• Current HPI: 189.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Alexandria, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+213.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $204,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $209,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $792 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.