5525 Pinetree Ave · Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1954 5,968 sqft lot $250/sqft · 32% below area Est $332k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The potential here is undeniable for the right buyer. This house is a renovation opportunity. Two blocks from the lagoon, three blocks from Beach access 12.

Key facts

• 5,968 sq ft lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 140 days

Tags

• TWO BLOCKS FROM THE LAGOON

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.1% in Lower Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patronis Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 42% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,161 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,578
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -32.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5910 Pinetree Ave	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	936 (+4%)	7mo	$270,000	$288	65
5020 Beach Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	936 (+4%)	3mo	$390,000	$417	60
5727 Hilltop Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	988 (+10%)	14mo	$395,000	$400	60
6016 Sunset Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	965 (+7%)	8mo	$393,000	$407	57
3917 Oriole St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	966 (+7%)	15mo	$312,500	$323	53
599 Seabreeze Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	947 (+5%)	8mo	$530,000	$560	50
3807 Mystic St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,030 (+14%)	14mo	$225,000	$218	49
6121 Orange Plz	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	936 (+4%)	11mo	$209,900	$224	46
2603 Cypress St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	954 (+6%)	4mo	$292,500	$307	45
344 Amberjack Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-7%)	13mo	$490,000	$583	36
3924 Treasure Cir	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,009 (+12%)	20mo	$205,000	$203	32
6220 Sunset Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,026 (+14%)	20mo	$455,000	$443	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-31,885
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,426
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,802 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $150	+0% $86	+5% $23	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $15	+0% $86	+5% $157	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $143	base $86	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5710 Sunset Ave Unit 1523314P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$8,246	$7.59	22d	1	0.13mi
5409 Hilltop Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	22d	1	0.14mi
5931 Pinetree Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	22d	1	0.34mi
5111 Flint Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,350	$1.32	22d	1	0.40mi
5104 Gulf Dr Unit B Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	22d	1	0.45mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	22d	1	0.74mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	22d	1	1.35mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	22d	1	1.37mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	22d	1	1.38mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	22d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 120 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 119 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 118 DOM
19. 2026-03-06
    soldstatus $220,000
20. 2026-02-05
    soldstatus $150,000
21. 2026-02-01
    listed $225,000 Active 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    The potential here is undeniable for the right buyer. This house is a renovation opportunity. Two blocks from the lagoon, three blocks from Beach access 12.

22. 2017-07-24
    soldstatus $102,000
23. 2000-05-17
    soldstatus $65,000
24. 2000-05-15
    soldstatus $65,000 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Walking distance to both the beach and the lagoon. Cute beach cottage with lots of potential. New roof 1 year ago, new A/C 6 months ago, new hot water heater, 1 year ago. Seller Licensed real estate agent.

25. 1999-12-22
    listed $65,000 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Walking distance to both the beach and the lagoon. Cute beach cottage with lots of potential. New roof 1 year ago, new A/C 6 months ago, new hot water heater, 1 year ago. Seller Licensed real estate agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,107/yr (+$92/mo · 145.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,730
• − Management: −$1,730
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$690
• After-tax cash flow: $1,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lower Grand Lagoon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #9567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+238.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-01 Listed $225,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2017-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-15 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CPARMLS
• 1999-12-22 Listed $65,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $760 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.