3019 Falls At Fairdale · Houston, TX 77057

$405,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2007 1,555 sqft lot $147/sqft · 12% below area Est $461k · 12% under $300/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a Stylish Gated Townhome in the Galleria Area. Located at 3019 Falls at Fairdale in Houston, this 3-story Spanish-style townhome is tucked inside the gated Falls at Fairdale community, offering both privacy and convenience in the heart of the Galleria area. Thoughtfully updated with modern finishes, this move-in ready home features custom built-in shelving, an LED fireplace, and spa-inspired bathrooms that create a comfortable, elevated living experience. The kitchen showcases sleek cabinetry and brand-new appliances, while a recently replaced roof adds peace of mind. Designed for both style and functionality, the layout offers flexible living spaces across three levels. Enjoy close

Key facts

• Led fireplace
• Gated townhome
• Sleek cabinetry

Tags

• GATED TOWNHOME
• FALLS AT FAIRDALE COMMUNITY
• CUSTOM BUILT-IN SHELVING
• LED FIREPLACE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOMS
• SLEEK CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Falls at Fairdale HOA; Gated community; Monthly association fee of $300 covering grounds maintenance; Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)
• Security: Gated community; Security gate; Prewired security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Built in 2007; Slab foundation; Concrete road access; Located in a subdivision
• Construction: Stone and stucco exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fully fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen and dining combined
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on third level (23 x 14); Bedroom on first level (12 x 13); Bedroom on third level (15 x 13)
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom on third level (8 x 5); Bathroom on first level (8 x 5); Bathroom on second level (3 x 4)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas) with zoning; Central electric cooling with zoning
• Interior features: Balcony; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Pantry; Self-closing drawers; Tub with shower; Vanity; Walk-in pantry; Wired for sound; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Electric fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Walk-in pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $394k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $386k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pilgrim Academy (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 1,233 students, 96% FRL); Tanglewood Middle (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 808 students, 62% FRL); Wisdom H S (math 17% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,260 students, 97% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,942/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 3533% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $385,843 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $461,225
• List price: $405,000
• Delta: -12.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3022 E Park At Fairdale	0.04mi	3/3.5	2,860 (+4%)	1mo	$375,000	$131	91
2842 Briarhurst Park	0.14mi	3/3.5	2,739 (-0%)	5mo	$419,900	$153	88
7543 Highmeadow Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,748 (-0%)	5mo	$400,000	$146	66
7618 Highmeadow Dr	0.64mi	3/3.0	2,527 (-8%)	2mo	$569,900	$226	52
2511 Briarmead Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,542 (-8%)	1mo	$1,295,000	$509	49
7602 Pagewood Ln	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,017 (+10%)	5mo	$789,900	$262	42
6131 Olympia Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,999 (+9%)	2mo	$1,510,000	$504	41
6162 Meadow Lake Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,462 (-11%)	3mo	$1,200,000	$487	40
7607 Meadowglen Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,361 (-14%)	4mo	$675,000	$286	40
3307 Chris Dr	0.64mi	3/4.0	2,340 (-15%)	4mo	$519,000	$222	39
7623 Fairdale Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,428 (-12%)	3mo	$750,000	$309	36
6127 Olympia Dr	0.73mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,026 (+10%)	11mo	$1,450,000	$479	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.23% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-52,854
• Equity at exit: $93,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-69,582
• Equity at exit: $94,170

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77057

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,942 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$630 /mo · $7,564/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$828
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,080

Max offer price $385,843

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $6	+0% $-108	+5% $-223	+10% $-338
Rent	-10% $-420	-5% $-264	+0% $-108	+5% $47	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $-5	base $-108	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2909 El Fenice Ln Unit 1538926P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2249	$7,906	$3.52	16d	1	0.21mi
2927 El Fenice Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2181	$3,200	$1.47	44d	1	0.21mi
2908 El Fenice Ln Unit 1538925P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2249	$7,906	$3.52	15d	1	0.23mi
2912 El Fenice Ln Unit 1538929P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2249	$7,906	$3.52	21d	1	0.23mi
2910 El Fenice Ln Unit 1538928P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2249	$6,426	$2.86	6d	1	0.23mi
2926 El Fenice Ln Unit 1514061P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2292	$6,039	$2.63	44d	1	0.23mi
2926 El Fenice Ln Unit 1514060P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2174	$6,326	$2.91	0d	1	0.23mi
2914 El Fenice Ln Unit 1538927P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2249	$7,906	$3.52	15d	1	0.24mi
5914 Val Verde St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2036	$3,900	$1.92	44d	1	0.69mi
5815 Fairdale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2047	$2,800	$1.37	44d	1	0.70mi
2425 Fountain View Dr Unit 210 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	2410	$2,000	$0.83	44d	1	0.71mi
5733 Winsome Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2481	$4,000	$1.61	13d	1	0.78mi
2226 Nantucket Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2304	$2,600	$1.13	25d	1	0.80mi
5640 Dolores St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2144	$3,999	$1.87	44d	1	0.87mi
5625 Dolores St Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	2935	$4,500	$1.53	44d	1	0.90mi
5615 Winsome Ln Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	3150	$3,195	$1.01	44d	1	0.94mi
2454 Bering Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2150	$2,800	$1.30	44d	1	0.95mi
5331 Beverly Hill St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1420	$1,688	$1.19	0d	88	1.34mi
3108 Roseland Terrace Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2618	$2,995	$1.14	44d	1	1.34mi
1268 Wood Hollow Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2324	$4,875	$2.10	2d	1	1.47mi
3319 Bingham Manor Ln Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2866	$2,900	$1.01	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $405,000 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $405,000 Pending 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $405,000 Pending 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $405,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $428,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-05-06
   listed $428,000 Active 884-char remark
7. 2026-03-17
   historical
8. 2026-02-18
   listed $465,000 Active
9. 2026-02-14
   historical
10. 2025-09-29
    listed $465,000 Active
11. 2023-06-02
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2023-05-11
    status Pending
13. 2023-05-03
    status Option Pending
14. 2023-04-05
    status Active
15. 2023-03-29
    status Option Pending
16. 2023-02-28
    status Active
17. 2023-02-27
    status Option Pending
18. 2023-02-11
    price $390,000
19. 2023-01-18
    listed $400,000 Active
20. 2022-12-17
    historical
21. 2022-10-12
    price $389,000
22. 2022-08-27
    listed $399,000 Active
23. 2019-05-28
    soldstatus
24. 2019-05-21
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2019-05-03
    status Pending
26. 2019-04-29
    status Active
27. 2019-04-25
    status Pending
28. 2019-04-19
    status Option Pending
29. 2019-03-20
    listed $335,000 Active
30. 2012-03-09
    soldstatus
31. 2012-01-12
    historical
32. 2011-07-18
    listed $234,900
33. 2007-05-25
    historical
34. 2007-04-24
    listed $425,000
35. 2007-04-21
    historical
36. 2007-03-01
    listed $398,500
37. 2007-02-06
    historical
38. 2006-10-24
    listed $405,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,564 · $630/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,564 · $630/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$7,564
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,785
• − Management: −$3,785
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$7,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,900
• After-tax cash flow: $599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,569
• Household income: $66,971
• Rent vs Own: 68.2% rent · 31.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3533.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 37% Two or more races 22% Black 12% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.23%
• Current HPI: 167.8863
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $405,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $428,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $465,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $465,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-03-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-02-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-11 Price Changed $390,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-18 Listed $400,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-10-12 Price Changed $389,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-27 Listed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-03-20 Listed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2012-03-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-01-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-07-18 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2007-05-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-04-24 Listed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2007-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-03-01 Listed $398,500 HARMLS
• 2007-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-10-24 Listed $405,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,564 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.