Drake Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$511,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,845 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This exquisite home spans 2,845 square feet, perfectly designed to accommodate modern living with both style and functionality. It features four generously sized bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms, ensuring ample space and privacy for family members and guests alike. Each bedroom boasts large walk-in closets, providing extensive storage options and a touch of luxury. The heart of this home is its expansive three-car tandem garage, offering plenty of room for vehicles and additional storage. Adding to its appeal is a well-appointed study, ideal for those who work from home or require a quiet space for reading and hobbies. For entertainment, the game room presents a versatile area suitable for variou

Key facts

• Courtyard porch
• Walk-in closets
• Well-appointed study

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• THREE-CAR TANDEM GARAGE
• WELL-APPOINTED STUDY
• GAME ROOM
• COURTYARD PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $531,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Plan model home: Drake
• Exterior features: Property listed as the Drake plan (new construction plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Living area of 2,845

🏗️ New construction. The $511,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $591,739.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $512k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $512k).
• Recommended offer: $497k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.7% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($497k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $496,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $591,739
• List price: $511,990
• Delta: -13.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Poe Pkwy	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,849 (+0%)	4mo	$599,900	$211	77
117 Poe Pkwy	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-2%)	8mo	$599,990	$216	73
172 Landon Path	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,730 (-4%)	6mo	$519,990	$190	65
237 Bryant Park	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-2%)	8mo	$569,990	$205	64
219 Bryant Park	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-2%)	9mo	$588,990	$212	62
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,613 (-8%)	0mo	$625,000	$239	62
936 County Road 375	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,023 (+6%)	1mo	$768,000	$254	60
235 Poe	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,101 (+9%)	5mo	$599,900	$193	59
280 Sittre Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,003 (+6%)	4mo	$545,000	$181	57
267 Sweet Rose	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+9%)	1mo	$549,000	$177	52
242 Sittre Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+9%)	9mo	$515,900	$167	50
229 Raven Rd	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (+7%)	6mo	$761,174	$250	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-59,828
• Equity at exit: $88,230

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-5,419
• Equity at exit: $51,163

Cash invested: $165,687 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,891 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,103
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$740 /mo · $8,876/yr
• Insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,237
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,176

Max offer price $591,739

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,935
• Closing costs: $17,752
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	4d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	44d	1	0.88mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	44d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $511,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $511,990 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $511,990 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $531,990 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $531,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $531,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $531,990 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $531,990 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $531,990 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $531,990 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $531,990 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $531,990 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $531,990 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $531,990 Active 1118-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,147
• − Property taxes: −$8,876
• − Insurance: −$2,959
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,656
• − Management: −$5,656
• − Depreciation: −$17,214
• Taxable loss: −$2,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$675
• After-tax cash flow: $7,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates, including a new roof, exterior siding and paint, HVAC systems, landscaping, and interior updates. Significant investment is needed to bring the property up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential leakage indicated by the satellite image.
• Major exterior siding — Severe discoloration and damage to the exterior siding.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Older systems likely in need of replacement or repair.
• Major landscaping — Sparse and in need of maintenance to improve curb appeal.
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos available, but exterior suggests older materials and paint in need of updating.
• Major flooring — No photos available, but exterior suggests older materials in need of updating.

Value-add opportunities

• Both new roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both exterior siding and paint — Updating the exterior siding and paint would enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Both HVAC/mechanicals — Upgrading HVAC systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would greatly enhance the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both interior updates — Updating interior walls, paint, and flooring would improve the home's overall condition and value.
• Both flooring — Replacing old flooring with modern materials would improve the home's condition and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage and potential leakage indicated by the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Severe discoloration and damage to the exterior siding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Older systems likely in need of replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and in need of maintenance to improve curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos available, but exterior suggests older materials and paint in need of updating.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos available, but exterior suggests older materials in need of updating.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both new roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both exterior siding and paint — Updating the exterior siding and paint would enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanicals — Upgrading HVAC systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would greatly enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both interior updates — Updating interior walls, paint, and flooring would improve the home's overall condition and value. ↑
• Both flooring — Replacing old flooring with modern materials would improve the home's condition and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B