Rc Carnegie II Plan · Mayflower, AR 72106

$214,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home is ready for modern lifestyles. An open-concept floorplan shared between the kitchen and living room encourages simple everyday transitions and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, opposite from the luxurious owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• KITCHEN AND LIVING ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $214,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,062.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mayflower School District (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #127 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,222 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.80%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,062
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -10.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Vineyard Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,476 (+0%)	2mo	$196,000	$133	95
16 E Reliance Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (+0%)	0mo	$222,900	$151	94
13 E Reliance Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (+0%)	0mo	$219,900	$149	92
15 E Reliance Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,523 (+4%)	1mo	$220,900	$145	78
5 Vineyard Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-7%)	3mo	$191,000	$140	75
14 Cross St	0.16mi	4/1.0	1,352 (-8%)	1mo	$159,000	$118	75
4 Concord Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+9%)	1mo	$269,900	$169	72
3 Vineyard Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+13%)	2mo	$211,000	$127	72
17 E Reliance Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,355 (-8%)	1mo	$212,400	$157	71
101 E Fredonia Ct	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+13%)	1mo	$232,000	$140	70
18 Wheeler St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-8%)	2mo	$205,000	$151	63
22 Ledrick Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+12%)	3mo	$264,400	$160	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $106,931
• Equity at exit: $208,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $326,812
• Equity at exit: $443,262

Cash invested: $66,937 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72106

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,752 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,254
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,586/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $200,304

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,766
• Closing costs: $7,172
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	14d	1	0.04mi
11 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	43d	1	0.07mi
7 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,750	$1.19	43d	1	0.10mi
5 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	43d	1	0.11mi
3 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	14d	1	0.12mi
104 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,750	$1.19	43d	1	0.16mi
103 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	14d	1	0.17mi
101 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,923	$1.16	14d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $214,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $214,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $214,900 Active 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    This new single-story home is ready for modern lifestyles. An open-concept floorplan shared between the kitchen and living room encourages simple everyday transitions and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, opposite from the luxurious owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,391
• − Property taxes: −$3,586
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
• − Management: −$1,682
• − Depreciation: −$6,955
• Taxable loss: −$7,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,792
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-story home is move-in ready with a good condition score and a fresh, inviting interior. It offers a good return on investment with potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayflower School District
• NCES district ID: 0509540
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,119
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6760
• State rank: #127 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayflower, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,719

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.62%
• Current HPI: 236.6197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $214,900 Zillow