261 N 11th St · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$114,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1970 0.32 ac lot $79/sqft · 48% below area Est $221k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is occupied. No interior access. Do not approach. Property information is assumed. Property is being featured in an upcoming online auction on Hubzu.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $788 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,160 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.23%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,256
• List price: $114,000
• Delta: -48.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 N 8th St	0.24mi	4/1.0	1,452 (+1%)	2mo	$150,000	$103	81
222 N 9th St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,370 (-5%)	10mo	$236,000	$172	77
329 N 10th St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-6%)	4mo	$255,000	$188	76
257 N 9th St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,377 (-4%)	8mo	$174,500	$127	74
320 S 10th St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (+1%)	8mo	$289,900	$200	69
229 S 12th St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (-12%)	0mo	$219,000	$173	59
1307 W Palm Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (-8%)	8mo	$215,000	$162	54
1522 W Palm	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	9mo	$220,000	$170	45
1510 Windy Oaks Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	11mo	$210,000	$162	42
1606 W Nelson Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,324 (-8%)	9mo	$199,999	$151	41
608 S 10th St	0.67mi	4/1.0	1,584 (+10%)	11mo	$99,000	$63	39
504 S 9th St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-15%)	11mo	$140,000	$114	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $68,410
• Equity at exit: $16,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $171,690
• Equity at exit: $9,857

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,601/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $1,363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,091

Max offer price $114,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,427	-5% $1,395	+0% $1,363	+5% $1,330	+10% $1,298
Rent	-10% $1,140	-5% $1,252	+0% $1,363	+5% $1,474	+10% $1,585
Rate	-1.0pp $1,420	-0.5pp $1,392	base $1,363	+0.5pp $1,333	+1.0pp $1,303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2255 McMullen Ln Aransas Pass, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$1,639	$1.04	14d	9	1.12mi
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	44d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $114,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $114,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-03-23
    listed $114,000 Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Property is occupied. No interior access. Do not approach. Property information is assumed. Property is being featured in an upcoming online auction on Hubzu.

13. 2005-11-17
    soldstatus
14. 2005-11-10
    soldstatus 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Immaculate rambler with beautiful hardwood floors throughout, builtins in every room. Lovely yard with many trees ans treehouse in quiet neighborhood

15. 2005-08-18
    listed $80,000 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Immaculate rambler with beautiful hardwood floors throughout, builtins in every room. Lovely yard with many trees ans treehouse in quiet neighborhood

16. 2002-11-15
    soldstatus
17. 2002-06-13
    listed $39,000
18. 2000-10-02
    listed $70,928
19. 2000-10-02
    listed $60,928

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,601 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,601 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$2,601
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,704
• − Management: −$2,704
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable income: $15,515
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,724
• After-tax cash flow: $12,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+60.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $114,000 CBMLS
• 2005-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-10 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2005-08-18 Listed $80,000 CBMLS
• 2002-11-15 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2002-06-13 Listed $39,000 CBMLS
• 2000-10-02 Listed $60,928 CBMLS
• 2000-10-02 Listed $70,928 CBMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,601 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.